Bitcoin Back in the Game: Short-Term Holders Signal Bullish Trend

Bitcoin is showing signs of life again, with analysts pointing to a key metric that suggests a potential upswing.

Short-Term Holders Back in Profit

Bitcoin has climbed back above the “Realized Price” of short-term holders (STHs), those who bought their coins in the last 155 days. This metric represents the average cost basis for these investors. When the price is higher than the Realized Price, STHs are sitting on profits, which can be a bullish indicator.

Analyst Insights

Maartunn from CryptoQuant sees this as a positive sign, historically followed by buying sprees from STHs looking to average down or increase their holdings. He points to two instances in early 2023 where Bitcoin reclaimed the STH Realized Price, followed by rallies of at least 30%.

Challenges Remain

Despite the positive sign, Glassnode data shows that over 66% of STHs are currently underwater, meaning they bought at a higher price and are now in a loss position. Santiment also reports a decline in the total number of Bitcoin holders, suggesting some believe the March 2024 high was the peak.

Hope on the Horizon

Santiment also notes that these mass liquidations can be a precursor to a rebound.

Bitcoin Price Target

Crypto analyst Cryptonary predicts a surge to a new all-time high of $223,000 based on historical trends after Miner Capitulation periods. Michael van de Poppe sees a potential rally towards $110,000.