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July NFP Not As Bad, But Markets Lean on 50 bps FED Rate Cuts

Skerdian Meta•Sunday, August 4, 2024•1 min read

Lower earnings reports from multinational companies initially caused turmoil in the market, and Friday’s US NFP jobs report compounded the negative sentiment. The US non-farm payrolls report for July 2024 revealed an increase of only 114,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 175,000.

The NF declined considerably last month

The previous month’s figure was revised down from 206,000 to 179,000. The labor force participation rate inched up to 62.7%, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, higher than the anticipated 4.1%. The unrounded rate was 4.252% though, which is close to 4.2%, so considering this and the uptick in the participation rate has, skewed the unemployment rate somewhat.

July 2024 US Employment Data from the Non-Farm Payrolls Report

  • Non-farm payrolls: +114K vs +175K expected
  • Prior: +206K (revised to +179K)

Details of the July 2024 Jobs Report:

  • Two-month net revision: -29K vs -111K prior
  • Unemployment rate: 4.3% vs 4.1% expected (unrounded 4.252%)
  • Prior unemployment rate: 4.1%
  • Participation rate: 62.7% vs 62.6% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate: 7.8% vs 7.4% prior
  • Average hourly earnings: +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected
  • Prior average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m
  • Average hourly earnings: +3.6% y/y vs +3.7% expected
  • Average weekly hours: 34.2 vs 34.3 expected
  • Change in private payrolls: +97K vs +148K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls: +1K vs -1K expected
  • Household survey: +67K vs +116K prior
  • Government jobs: +17K vs +70K prior
  • Full time: +448K vs -28K prior
  • Part time: -325K vs +50K prior

Sector Notes:

  • Health care continued to add jobs (+55K)
  • Information sector lost jobs (-20K)
  • Government employment showed little change after larger gains in previous months
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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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