Gold (XAU): Key Resistance at $2,500 in Focus Ahead of NFP Report

Gold is trading at $2,495, attempting to break above a critical resistance level near $2,500, a major psychological barrier and key technical point.

A successful move above this level would signal bullish momentum, with potential upside targets at $2,513 and $2,527. Today’s pivot point sits at $2,499, aligning with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), also around $2,499.30. A breach above this mark would indicate further upward movement for gold.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48.27, just below the key 50 level. A move above this could confirm a stronger bullish outlook. On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,482, followed by $2,470 and $2,456. Any failure to hold these levels may trigger a retracement.

Key Events Released and Upcoming

JOLTS Job Openings (Sep 4, 14:00)

• Actual: 7.67M
• Forecast: 8.09M
• Previous: 7.91M

The drop in U.S. job openings signals a cooling labor market, raising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This news supported non-yielding assets like gold, which generally benefit from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates.

Upcoming Economic Data to Watch (Sep 5)

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (12:15)

• Forecast: 144K
• Previous: 122K

A weaker-than-expected ADP report could heighten speculation of a Fed rate cut, supporting gold.

Unemployment Claims (12:30)

• Forecast: 231K

An increase in claims would indicate softening in the labor market, another positive for gold prices.

ISM Services PMI (14:00)

• Forecast: 51.3
• Previous: 51.4

A lower PMI reading could signal an economic slowdown, reinforcing the case for rate cuts and boosting gold’s appeal.

Crude Oil Inventories (15:00)

• Forecast: -0.6M

Lower inventories may impact inflation expectations, indirectly influencing gold as a hedge against rising prices.

Conclusion

Gold is currently facing resistance around $2,500 and a crucial technical level at the 50-day EMA. Economic data releases, particularly around employment and PMI figures, will likely impact price direction.

If these reports signal further economic weakness, gold could benefit from increased expectations for Fed rate cuts.

However, failure to break above $2,500 could lead to retracement toward support levels at $2,482 and $2,470.