Japan Q2 GDP (Revised) Report:
- Japan’s Q2 GDP growth was revised to +0.7% q/q, slightly lower than the preliminary estimate of +0.8%.
- The previous quarter’s GDP had contracted by -0.6%.
- Annualized GDP growth for Q2 came in at 2.9%, below the preliminary estimate of 3.2%.
- In comparison, the prior quarter’s annualized GDP showed a -2.4% contraction, reflecting the recovery in Q2.
Inflation Indicator (GDP Deflator):
- The Q2 annualized GDP deflator (a measure of price inflation within the economy) rose 3.2% YoY, slightly higher than the expected 3.0%.
- The prior deflator for the same period was 3.0% YoY, indicating consistent inflationary pressure.
- Extended Insights:
- The revised GDP figures show Japan’s economy is recovering but at a slower pace than initially thought, especially when compared to the stronger recovery seen in Q2 annualized figures.
- The upward revision in the GDP deflator points to underlying inflationary pressures, which could affect future monetary policy.
- Despite growth, the economy remains vulnerable due to global economic challenges and domestic inflation concerns, highlighting the need for careful fiscal and monetary balancing.
USDJPY to Break August’s Low and Head for 140 Soon?
USDJPY fell to 141.69 in the first week of August which held as support, but it seems like we will see a break below this level soon.
Skerdian Meta•Monday, September 9, 2024•2 min read
USDJPY fell to 141.69 in the first week of August which held as support, but it seems like we will see a break below this level soon, as sellers remain in control. Central banks policies are diverging, with the FED about to begin the policy easing cycle, while the BOJ has just raised interest rates, which should keep the pressure to the downside for this pair.
USD/JPY experienced strong buying pressure after a 20-cent decline, climbing 7.5 cents and breaking above the 149 level. However, buyers were unable to sustain these gains, and the pair saw a sharp reversal in the weeks that followed, falling below the 100 SMA on the weekly chart, which had been a support level. This technical break signals potential for further losses, potentially dipping below the December 2023 lows around the 140 mark.
USD/JPY Chart Weekly – The 100 SMA Has Been Broken
On Friday, we had the US NFP report for August, which calmed some nerves after July’s soft number. The market concluded that the August non-farm payrolls report wasn’t weak enough to justify a 50 basis point rate cut by the FED, which provided support for the US dollar, closing the day with gains, but not against the Yen. This sentiment was reinforced by balanced statements from Fed officials Williams and Waller, who lean toward a smaller 25 basis point rate reduction. However, this forex pair close the day nearly 2 cents lower, which is a bearish signal for USD/JPY. The Bank of japan on the other hand, has turned hawkish. Early this morning we had the Final GDP report from Japan, as well as the Current Account.
USD/JPY Live Chart
USD/JPY
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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