Gold Stops at Support As Retail Sales Leave FED Pricing Unchanged
Gold failed at the Gold reversed at resistance around $2725 last week, falling to the 200 SMA which is acting as support, and today it is bouncing slowly after the US retail sales report for November.
Gold prices experienced a sharp downturn late last week, dropping $100 after failing to surpass the November resistance level near $2,725. This decline comes as markets anticipate a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is widely expected. Yesterday, gold recovered more than $20, but buyers were unable to push prices above the moving averages on the H4 chart.
Gold Chart H4 – The 200 SMA Held As Support Again
The reversal was fueled by a strong U.S. services PMI report for December, showing improved activity. However, the decline halted at the 200 SMA (purple), a key support level since late November. Prices hit a low of $2,633 at this support but stabilized and have since rebounded by around $12 following the release of U.S. retail sales data for November.
US Advance November 2024 Retail Sales from the Census Bureau![US retail sales control group]()
Retail Sales Control Group:
- November: +0.4% (matched expectations).
- October: -0.1% (prior).
Headline Retail Sales:
- November: +0.7% (beat +0.4% expected).
- October: +0.4% (revised to +0.5%).
- Total sales: $724.6 billion (up from $718.9 billion).
- Year-over-year: +3.8% (highest since December 2023, previously +2.85%).
- Sales Ex Autos:
- November: +0.2% (below +0.4% expected).
- October: +0.1% (revised to +0.2%).
- Sales Ex Autos and Gas:
- November: +0.2%.
- October: +0.1%.
Sector Highlights:
- Food Services & Drinking Places: -0.4% MoM (indicates potential weakness in consumer spending).
- Auto Sales: +2.6% MoM, +6.5% YoY.
- Nonstore Retailers (E-commerce): +1.8% MoM, +9.8% YoY.
November retail sales data showed stronger-than-expected headline growth, with total sales rising 0.7% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, the highest annual increase since December 2023. The retail sales control group matched forecasts at +0.4%, while auto sales and e-commerce were standout performers, growing 2.6% and 1.8% month-over-month, respectively. However, declines in food services (-0.4%) and weaker ex-auto and ex-gas figures (+0.2%) suggest pockets of softness in consumer spending. The mixed details indicate resilience in some sectors but potential vulnerabilities in discretionary categories.
Gold Live Chart
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