Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $200K While Solana Struggles Below $250 Despite Strong Fundamentals
Bitcoin analysts predict a potential rally toward $200,000-$240,000 as the cryptocurrency rebounds from its 40-week moving average and
Quick overview
- Bitcoin analysts predict a potential price rally toward $200,000-$240,000 as it rebounds from its 40-week moving average.
- Solana faces challenges despite leading in DApp revenue and attracting significant ETF inflows, with a recent 6% drop in price.
- The US Senate's recent funding bill aims to end the longest government shutdown in history, impacting crypto regulation.
- Brazil's central bank has introduced new regulations for crypto firms, increasing government oversight over stablecoin transactions.
Bitcoin BTC/USD analysts predict a potential rally toward $200,000-$240,000 as the cryptocurrency rebounds from its 40-week moving average and prepares for its Wave III expansion phase. Meanwhile, Solana SOL/USD faces headwinds despite recording the highest DApp revenue across all blockchains and attracting over $600 million in combined ETF inflows since late October.
Crypto Market Developments
This week, the cryptocurrency market is still trying to figure out how to deal with a lot of different rules and big-picture economic issues. On Monday night, the US Senate voted 60-40 to adopt a vital funding bill. This brings the country one step closer to ending the longest government shutdown in US history, which has lasted more than 40 days. The plan, which would pay for government operations until January 31, 2026, is now waiting for the House of Representatives to approve it. The House is likely to vote on Wednesday, after the federal holiday. The shutdown has had a big effect on crypto regulation. For example, the Securities and Exchange Commission is working with less staff and less capacity.
Brazil’s central bank made a big change to the rules by publishing three new resolutions that give the government full control over crypto firms. Starting on February 2, 2026, the rules will treat stablecoin transactions and some self-custody wallet transfers as foreign-exchange operations. This means that virtual asset service providers will be subject to banking-style supervision. Even for transfers that don’t cross borders, service providers will have to find out who owns the wallet and check where the assets came from and where they are going. The US Senate Agriculture Committee, on the other hand, put out a discussion draft of crypto market structure legislation. This bill would make it clearer what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission can and can’t do when it comes to regulating digital assets.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $200,000 Next Target?
Market expert Gert Van Lagen says that Bitcoin’s technical structure is indicating renewed positive momentum. He says that Wave II has finished correcting and Wave III may be starting to expand. Van Lagen’s Elliott Wave analysis shows that Bitcoin has bounced back from its 40-week simple moving average, which is a sign that a big rally is about to happen. His “step-like” model, which correctly forecasted big price rises in 2019 and 2023 after similar consolidation patterns, currently suggests that the price might reach $200,000 to $240,000 in the next several months. Crypto trader Jelle reinforces this positive forecast, stating that after Bitcoin clears resistance at the midpoint of its long-term ascending price channel, the upper boundary near $350,000 promises tremendous upside potential.
The state of the economy as a whole may also be setting things up for Bitcoin’s next rise. Sminston With, a macroeconomic researcher, says that the US Purchasing Managers’ Index has been below 50 for almost three years. This is the longest economic slump since records began in 1948. Historically, long downturns like this one are followed by strong recoveries that push investors into riskier assets. Bitcoin filled the CME gap that opened over the weekend and is trying to find support over $105,000 in the immediate term. After the October 10 liquidation event, futures open interest has gone down and average order sizes have shrunk a lot. However, on-chain liquidation patterns near $100,000 have come before little recoveries, which could mean that a positive reversal pivot is possible that could strengthen the overall uptrend.
Why is Solana Trading Under Pressure?
Solana dropped 6% after getting close to $172 on Monday. It fell along with the Nasdaq Index because people were worried about CoreWeave’s lower outlook for cloud services revenue and allegations that China would stop US military access to rare-earth minerals. Even if this is a setback, Solana’s basic numbers are still quite good. Over the previous 30 days, the network has witnessed a 10% increase in active addresses and an 8% increase in transactions.
This is a big improvement over Ethereum, which had a 5% reduction in active addresses and a 26% drop in transactions during the same time period. Most importantly, Solana still leads in revenue from decentralized applications, and no other blockchain comes close to its performance. This gives it a competitive edge that helps it get more deposits through yield-sharing mechanisms.
Solana’s growth path shows that it is becoming more diverse across many sectors. Its total value locked has grown to $12 billion, while BNB Chain’s has only grown to $8 billion. In the last 30 days, Securitize for Real World Assets went up 35%, Solstice USX for Basis Trading went up 31%, and Meteora deposits for Liquidity Pools went up 10%. In the past, exchanging memecoins was a big part of Solana’s activity, but the network has grown beyond that.
Since its launch on October 28, spot Solana ETFs have brought in a net of $343 million. The REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF has brought in an extra $286 million. But these positive flows have been partly canceled out by corporate treasury movements, including Galaxy Digital Holdings’ selling of 439,621 SOL. Analysts think that Solana will continue to fare better than the rest of the cryptocurrency market because it has good on-chain fundamentals and makes a lot of money from DApps. However, getting to $250 will probably require less risk in the AI field and less conflict in commerce between countries.
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