ASML Stock Surges Toward €1,650 as AI Chip Demand Drives Second 2026 Forecast Hike
ASML Holdings stock ASML jumps as AI chip demand drives a 2026 forecast hike, strong Q2 results and bullish technical momentum.
Quick overview
- ASML shares surged after the company exceeded Q2 earnings expectations and raised its full-year revenue outlook due to strong AI-related demand.
- The company reported Q2 net sales of €9.33 billion and net income of €2.92 billion, both surpassing analyst estimates.
- ASML plans to expand its production capacity by 30% over the next two years to meet increasing demand from chipmakers.
- Despite strong performance, regulatory risks related to China remain a concern for ASML investors.
ASML shares rallied after the Dutch chip-equipment leader beat Q2 expectations and raised its full-year outlook on extremely strong AI-related demand.
ASML Breaks Higher as AI Demand Lifts Orders and Guidance
ASML Holding delivered another powerful earnings update, reinforcing its position as one of the most important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain.
The company reported Q2 net sales of €9.33 billion, beating analyst expectations near €8.80 billion. Net income came in at €2.92 billion, also above estimates of roughly €2.62 billion.
More importantly, ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook for the second time this year. The company now expects net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, up sharply from its previous range of €36 billion to €40 billion. Gross margin guidance was also lifted to 54%-56%.
The upgrade confirms that the AI infrastructure boom is still driving aggressive capacity expansion from the world’s largest chipmakers.
EUV Demand Remains the Core Growth Driver
ASML is the only company in the world that produces extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are essential for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors.
That monopoly-like position makes ASML a critical supplier to TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Intel as they race to build capacity for AI chips, high-bandwidth memory, advanced logic and next-generation processors.
CEO Christophe Fouquet said order intake remained “extremely strong” during the first half of the year as customers accelerated capacity expansion plans.
This visibility is important for investors. Semiconductor stocks have recently faced questions about whether AI-related capital spending is becoming too aggressive, but ASML’s guidance suggests chip manufacturers are still committing heavily to future production capacity.
Capacity Expansion Signals Confidence
ASML is also moving to expand its own output.
The company plans to increase capacity by 30% in each of the next two years for both EUV systems and DUV immersion tools. DUV tools are used for less advanced chips and remain important for customers in China, where ASML is barred from selling EUV machines and its most advanced DUV systems due to export restrictions.
The planned capacity expansion directly counters the bear case that ASML cannot grow fast enough to meet demand.
JPMorgan analysts said the results may help ASML close its valuation gap with U.S. semiconductor peers, arguing that the company is effectively guiding toward strong growth over the next two years.
Installed Base Business Adds Margin Support
Beyond new machine sales, ASML’s installed base business also performed strongly.
The company said installed base revenue reached €2.8 billion, about €300 million above expectations. This business includes service, upgrades and productivity improvements for machines already operating at customer sites.
That matters because installed base revenue tends to be recurring and margin-supportive. As chipmaking becomes more complex, customers increasingly rely on ASML software upgrades, metrology and inspection tools to improve yields and productivity.
The stronger installed base performance gives ASML a more durable earnings profile even if new equipment shipments fluctuate from quarter to quarter.
High-NA EUV Milestone Strengthens ASML’s Long-Term Story
ASML also announced an important High-NA EUV milestone.
Intel will use ASML’s next-generation High-NA tool for some of its advanced Panther Lake chips, marking a step toward production use of the technology. High-NA EUV is expected to play a major role in future advanced-node manufacturing.
For ASML, broader High-NA adoption could become a major long-term revenue and margin driver. The technology is expensive, complex and strategically important, reinforcing ASML’s position at the center of leading-edge chip production.
China Risk Still Hangs Over the Rally
Despite the strong results, China remains a key risk.
ASML expects Chinese customers to account for around 20% of 2026 sales. That percentage is lower than in some previous years, but the absolute level of China revenue is still rising as total sales grow.
U.S.-led export restrictions already prevent ASML from selling EUV tools and its most advanced DUV machines to China. Additional proposed restrictions could further limit sales of DUV equipment to Chinese chipmakers.
For now, demand from China remains strong, especially from domestic logic-chip makers. But regulatory risk remains one of the biggest uncertainties for ASML investors.
ASML Technical Analysis: Buyers Reclaim Momentum Above €1,600
ASML closed at €1,648.20, up 5.94%, after the earnings-driven breakout.
ASML Chart 4H – Moving Averages Confirm Bullish Breakout
The 4-hour chart remains strongly constructive. ASML is trading above every major moving average listed, confirming that buyers are in control after the guidance hike.
The first major support zone now sits around €1,570-€1,590. The 10-period EMA is near €1,571.6, the 20-period EMA is around €1,572.4, and the 50-period SMA stands near €1,592.2. This cluster should act as the first important pullback area.
The Ichimoku base line near €1,587.4 and Hull Moving Average near €1,577.9 reinforce that support region.
Below that, the 100-period EMA near €1,543.3 and VWMA near €1,554.6 provide deeper support. Longer-term support sits much lower, with the 200-period EMA near €1,451.7 and 200-period SMA around €1,425.3.
Oscillators show strong but not extreme momentum. RSI is at 62.4, below overbought territory, while Momentum and MACD are both flashing buy signals. The CCI at 233.5 shows the move is stretched in the short term, but the broader technical structure remains bullish.
Key Levels to Watch
The first upside level is €1,650. A sustained move above that area could open the door toward €1,700, followed by the recent all-time high area near €1,741.
If buyers clear €1,741, ASML could enter another breakout phase, especially if chip-equipment demand remains strong into the second half of 2026.
On the downside, €1,590 is the first support level. A break below that area could bring €1,570 and €1,550 back into focus. A deeper drop below €1,543 would suggest the earnings breakout is losing strength.
For now, the chart favors buyers as long as ASML remains above the €1,570-€1,590 support band.
AI Demand Keeps ASML in Control
ASML’s Q2 results strengthened the case that AI infrastructure spending remains a powerful driver for semiconductor equipment demand.
The company beat expectations, raised guidance, expanded capacity plans and showed strong installed base growth. It also gained a major High-NA validation from Intel, adding another long-term catalyst.
However, valuation and export restrictions remain important risks. ASML shares have already rallied sharply this year, and investors may become more selective if AI-related semiconductor momentum weakens.
Still, the company’s position is unusually strong. ASML remains the gatekeeper for advanced chip manufacturing, and its customers are accelerating capacity plans rather than slowing them.
For now, ASML stock remains bullish above €1,570-€1,590. A move above €1,700 would strengthen the breakout, while a retest of €1,741 would confirm that investors are still willing to pay a premium for the company’s central role in the AI chip supply chain.
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