Tesla Stock Forecast: TSLA Slides Toward $368 Ahead of Earnings—Can Robotaxi Hype Rescue the Week?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) enters a high-stakes earnings week trading near $380, after losing the important $391 support level during the broader technology selloff. The decline came despite Tesla reporting record second-quarter deliveries and energy-storage deployments. That disconnect captures the debate now surrounding the company: investors are encouraged by improving vehicle demand, but they want proof that higher sales are translating into better margins and that Tesla’s expensive bets on robotaxis, artificial intelligence and humanoid robots are moving closer to commercial reality.

With second-quarter earnings due after Wednesday’s closing bell, the market is no longer asking whether Tesla can sell more vehicles. It is asking whether the company can fund its AI ambitions without weakening profitability.

Record Deliveries Lifted the Bull Case

Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles during the second quarter, comfortably exceeding Wall Street estimates of roughly 406,000–409,000. Production reached 451,758 vehicles, suggesting Tesla reduced some accumulated inventory while responding to stronger demand.

Model 3 and Model Y remained the core volume drivers, accounting for more than 442,000 vehicles produced. Deliveries of the Cybertruck, Model S and Model X collectively exceeded 12,000 units.

The performance marked a meaningful improvement after a difficult start to 2026. Demand showed signs of recovery in Europe, while China remained a major contributor despite aggressive competition from BYD and other domestic electric-vehicle manufacturers.

Tesla also deployed a record 13.5 GWh of energy-storage products, reinforcing the growing importance of Megapack and Powerwall. The energy division provides diversification beyond vehicle sales and has produced stronger margins than the automotive business in some quarters.

Wall Street Wants Margins, Not Just Deliveries

Record deliveries have raised expectations, but Wednesday’s report will reveal whether Tesla achieved that growth profitably.

Automotive margins remain under pressure from promotional financing, regional price competition and rising input costs. Tesla has also increased spending on AI computing, autonomous-driving development, factories and new products.

That means a strong delivery number may not translate directly into equally strong earnings.

Investors will closely examine automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits, operating margin and free cash flow. Even a relatively small margin change can materially affect Tesla’s profits because of its manufacturing scale.

The market will also want guidance on second-half deliveries. Evidence that Europe continues recovering and China remains resilient could strengthen the argument that Tesla is returning to annual growth. Softer guidance would revive concerns that the record quarter benefited from temporary incentives or delayed purchases.

Check out FXLeaders earnings calendar for more updates.

Robotaxis Could Dominate the Earnings Call

Tesla’s robotaxi programme may have a larger influence on the stock than the completed quarter.

Investors will look for details on fleet expansion, regulatory approvals, paid usage and the reliability of autonomous operations. Management has repeatedly positioned robotaxis as one of Tesla’s largest potential businesses, meaning even small operational updates can move the stock sharply.

Full Self-Driving adoption will also matter. Higher software uptake could improve recurring revenue and margins, but Tesla must demonstrate that its technology is advancing toward widespread unsupervised use.

Optimus and Dojo will receive attention as well. Tesla is estimated to be investing heavily in AI-related infrastructure during 2026, creating a clear trade-off: aggressive spending may weaken near-term cash flow, but successful commercialisation could expand Tesla far beyond vehicle manufacturing.

Related: NVIDIA Stock Outlook: Can AI Spending Keep Semiconductor Demand at Record Levels?

What Could Decide Tesla’s Coming Week?

Wednesday’s earnings report is the week’s defining catalyst. Investors should focus on:

• Automotive gross margin and pricing pressure
• Free cash flow and capital expenditure
• Robotaxi deployment and FSD adoption
• Energy-storage growth and profitability
• Second-half vehicle-delivery guidance

A strong earnings beat accompanied by improving margins and credible robotaxi milestones could quickly reverse the recent decline. Weak margins or vague autonomous-driving updates would reinforce concerns that Tesla’s valuation already assumes too much future success.

Tesla Stock Forecast: Is $368 the Line Bulls Must Defend?

Tesla has broken below the $391.05 support zone and is trading beneath the 50-period EMA at $396.49 and the 100-period EMA near $401.24. That keeps the short-term technical structure bearish heading into earnings.

The immediate downside target is $368.42, where a previous triple-bottom structure meets the rising long-term trendline. Holding this area could trigger an oversold rebound toward $391, followed by the $396–$401 moving-average resistance zone.

A decisive break below $368.42 would expose $351.93, with deeper support near $337.17.

The RSI has fallen to approximately 27, placing Tesla in oversold territory. That increases the chance of a short-term bounce, but oversold conditions alone do not confirm a bottom. Bulls need to reclaim $391 before the technical outlook materially improves.

Tesla Weekly Outlook

Tesla enters earnings week with better operational momentum but a more demanding investment test. Record deliveries and energy deployments support the fundamental case, yet investors need evidence that margins, cash generation and AI execution are keeping pace.

For the stock, the setup is straightforward: $368 is the key downside level, while a recovery above $391–$401 would signal that buyers are regaining control. Wednesday’s earnings call will likely decide whether Tesla finishes the week as an improving automaker or an AI story still asking investors for patience.