Apple Earnings Send AAPL Stock Toward $300 as Weak Outlook and China Sales Trigger Selloff

Apple Stock Tumbles as Weak Guidance Overshadows Strong Earnings

Apple stock came under heavy selling pressure in post-market trading after the company delivered better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter 2026 results but issued revenue guidance that failed to satisfy increasingly demanding investors. The weaker outlook overshadowed record revenue and earnings growth, pushing AAPL toward the $300 level.

Apple Revenue Surges, but Guidance Disappoints

Apple reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $109.4 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase. Diluted earnings per share reached $2.02, up 29% from the same period a year earlier.

However, investors quickly shifted their attention toward the company’s forward outlook. Apple expects September-quarter revenue to increase between 9% and 11% year over year. The midpoint of that range implies roughly $113 billion in revenue, below Wall Street expectations of approximately $114.9 billion.

That shortfall was enough to raise concerns that Apple’s impressive growth momentum could begin to lose steam.

Services and China Revenue Miss Estimates

The earnings report also contained several weak spots that undermined the headline numbers.

Services revenue, which includes subscriptions, advertising, digital content and support services, reached $30.74 billion, missing analyst expectations of $31.22 billion. The miss is particularly notable because Services has become an increasingly important growth engine for Apple.

Greater China revenue was another disappointment. Revenue from the region came in at $18.8 billion, below estimates of $19.5 billion. Weakness in China remains an important concern because of intense competition and uncertain consumer demand.

iPad revenue also fell short, reaching $6.19 billion compared with expectations of $6.92 billion.

AAPL Shares Rebound Off the 100 SMA

Apple reported a better-than-expected fiscal Q3 2026, but it disappointed on details and pushing its stock back down toward $300,  after making a new high earlier this week at $344. The buying momentum continued throughout July and AAPL stock price reached new highs, but then made a steep reversal and slipped to $305 in after hours trading, so we might see a dive below the $300 level.

AAPL Chart Daily – Reversing from All Time Highs

Tariff Refund Raises Questions Over Earnings Quality

Apple’s earnings beat was also helped by a one-time benefit. Tariff refunds contributed approximately 11 cents to earnings per share after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down previously implemented global tariffs in February 2026.

While the refund boosted reported profitability, it does not represent recurring operating growth. That makes the headline EPS improvement look less impressive when assessing the underlying strength of the business.

AAPL Faces a Tougher Valuation Test

The selloff is particularly significant because Apple entered the earnings report following a powerful rally. The stock had gained roughly 25% in 2026 and briefly pushed Apple’s market value above $5 trillion.

That strong performance left little room for disappointment.

With the forward revenue outlook falling below expectations and key businesses such as Services and Greater China missing forecasts, investors now have fresh reasons to question whether Apple’s valuation had moved too far ahead of its underlying growth.

The immediate reaction suggests the market is no longer willing to overlook weaker guidance simply because Apple continues to produce record headline numbers. For AAPL, the combination of elevated expectations, slowing forward growth and disappointing segments could create a more difficult trading environment if the stock continues drifting toward $300.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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