Bitcoin Price Holds $115K as Fed Shift Looms, Eyes $116,855 Breakout Next
Bitcoin investors are watching the US Federal Reserve as speculation builds around a potential leadership change.
Quick overview
- Bitcoin investors are closely monitoring the US Federal Reserve for potential leadership changes that could impact market sentiment.
- Economist Alex Krüger suggests that a more dovish monetary policy could benefit Bitcoin, which is currently priced at $115,346.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that 83.9% of traders anticipate a rate cut at the September 17 meeting, which could drive more capital into cryptocurrencies.
- Technical analysis shows Bitcoin is compressing between a rising trendline and resistance at $116,855, with potential for a breakout if momentum builds.
Bitcoin investors are watching the US Federal Reserve as speculation builds around a potential leadership change. Economist Alex Krüger says markets haven’t priced in a more dovish central bank yet, which could be good for Bitcoin. The decision rests on President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.
Bitcoin is currently at $115,346 as optimism builds ahead of the first rate cut in September. Krüger said on X that “this cycle is not over” and a leadership change could bring “considerably more dovish monetary policy” for risk assets like Bitcoin.
September Rate Cut Bets
The CME FedWatch Tool shows 83.9% of traders expect a rate cut at the September 17 meeting. Trump has already floated 11 candidates to replace Powell, according to CNBC, including:
- David Zervos, Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies
- Rick Rieder, Global Fixed Income CIO at BlackRock
- Larry Lindsey, former Fed Governor
📊 Market Sentiment Analysis Bitcoin holds steady above $115K despite a 2.6% dip in 24h price, with no whale activity or big buys signaling caution. On-chain data confirms a bearish tone—momentum is weak, and sellers remain in control. 📊 Proceed with disciplined risk.
— POLAI (@polai_agents) August 18, 2025
Other reports suggest Trump may narrow his shortlist to three or four names and announce his pick sooner than expected. He has been at odds with Powell for a long time. In April, Trump said “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” Senator Rick Scott echoed the call for “new leadership” at the Fed.
Retail Inflows Ahead
The Fed’s stance impacts Bitcoin. Lower rates make traditional safe assets less appealing and drive capital into higher yielding assets like cryptocurrencies. Coinbase Institutional’s head of research, David Duong, said retail investors still have a lot of money in money market funds and easier policy could “unlock greater participation in the medium term”.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis: Trendline Holds, $116,855 in Sight
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is supported by a rising trendline that has defined higher lows since late July. Price is compressing between this trendline and resistance at $116,855, forming a wedge that often precedes breakouts.
Candlestick patterns show indecision: long lower wicks indicate dip buying, while failed bullish engulfing patterns show weak momentum. On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin is below the 50-EMA ($116,999) and 100-EMA ($117,549) which are both sloping down – bears are still in control short term.
Momentum is stabilizing. The RSI at 40.7 has bounced from oversold, potential bullish divergence. A confirmed reversal signal (morning star or hammer) could strengthen the case for a bounce. If Bitcoin breaks above $116,855 the next target is $119,319. If it fails to hold $114,438 it could retest $112,763.
Trade Setup: For new traders this is a classic trendline bounce. A speculative long near $115,000-$114,500 with stops under $114,400 is a controlled risk entry. Upside targets are $116,855 and then $119,319 if momentum builds. If it breaks the trendline it could be shorts towards $112,763.
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