WTI Crude Price Forecast: Will Triangle Support Spark a Move Back Over $94?
The USOIL price is under severe technical pressure, holding at $91.26 after a 0.48% bounce from the lows.
Quick overview
- USOIL price is currently at $91.26, facing significant technical pressure and testing its lower support level.
- A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has stabilized oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the war risk premium.
- OPEC+ is set to discuss a modest production increase on June 7, with expectations of a 188,000 barrel per day rise.
- Technical analysis indicates a potential breakout setup for USOIL as it approaches peak wedge compression.
The USOIL price is under severe technical pressure, holding at $91.26 after a 0.48% bounce from the lows. A massive symmetrical triangle pattern on USOIL’s 4-hour chart is compressing in an extreme fashion, testing its lower support.
The price action is squeezed between the fading geopolitical impact of the Middle East conflict on one side and the impending monetary policy changes by OPEC+ and the Federal Reserve on the other.
Important news driving WTI crude oil (USOIL) price today:
De-escalation of oil flow through chokepoints
A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has now held for eight weeks. Oil transit via the Strait of Hormuz is back up to the 75% to 80% range seen prior to the Iran-Israel exchange. With the danger of war receding, the war risk premium is dissipating on a weekly basis; however, the ongoing verification and reconstruction effort are capping crude flow.
OPEC+ to discuss July quota increases on June 7
Attention is focused on the June 7 meeting where seven OPEC+ countries are expected to approve a smaller production hike in July. The total expected output will be a 188,000 barrel a day production increase. The seven oil producers will resume the unwinding of their voluntary production cuts after the exit of the UAE last month.
The Federal Reserve Chair Warsh is sworn in
With inflation staying tighter than expected, the inauguration of the new Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh this morning was received well. However, with the April US inflation rate at 3.8%, rate cuts in 2026 have faded from the Fed’s forecast. Warsh will keep the rate on hold with a hawkish stance.
Technical Analysis: WTI crude oil (USOIL)
On the WTI crude oil 4-hour time frame, USOIL price is in a contracting range as it touches its lower green ascending trendline drawn connecting price points (B-C-D) at $91.26. After a strong rejection from the upper counter-trendline, WTI crude oil is testing the lower support level.
Sellers are pressing the USOIL price below the strong $94.69 to $94.85 horizontal supply area.
RSI (14) is neutral-oversold at 39 to 43 and volume is shrinking near the apex of the triangle, indicating bears will maintain local control, with potential reversal volatility spike forming on breakout.
- USOIL resistance: $92.50, $94.69 to $94.85 (wedge roof) and major structural trend lines at $98.56
- USOIL support: $91.26 (trendline), $89.99 (horizontal), $87.81 (demand zone)
Buy WTI crude oil (USOIL)
A breakout setup is forming as USOIL price reaches peak wedge compression.
- Order: Buy Stop (BS) above $94.69 level
- Targets: $96.00 (T1) / $98.56 (T2)
- Stop Loss (SL): Under the $89.99 support
Conclusion
Our technical WTI crude oil (USOIL) price forecast shows USOIL price reacting to the major post-geopolitical fallout as it is testing multiple multi-month trends lines. The rising US and Guyana production is the key upside factor for supply, while the decade of underinvestment is a strong factor on the downside.
We expect USOIL price will be at peak triangle compression ahead of the weekly EIA crude oil inventory. As USOIL price approaches its lower triangle support level, take a position above its wedge ceiling level ahead of the June 7 meeting by the major OPEC+ oil producers that will announce their output targets.
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