Quick overview

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Nasdaq 100 futures are experiencing an intraday pullback and short-term consolidation after testing overhead resistance near record territory.

A recent minor drop (~0.6%) was driven by a “sell-the-news” reaction following TSMC’s earnings and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East

The immediate short-term support shelf (78.6% Fibonacci retracement / ascending trendline on hourly charts).28,150: 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which represents dynamic medium-term trend support. 25,700 – 26,000: Major 200-day SMA macro floor

Psychological barrier and recent intraday supply zone. ~30,660: Record high set in June; breaking and holding above this level is required to unlock the next leg higher toward 32,000+.Momentum: On lower timeframes (H1/4H), RSI sits around 37-40, indicating near-term selling pressure as price dips below shorter EMAs (10, 30, 100), but near oversold conditions near support.

Fundamentals across semiconductor and Big Tech earnings remain strong. For instance, TSMC delivered record Q2 net income (+23.4% quarter-over-quarter) and upgraded its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $60B–$64B, reinforcing massive ongoing AI hardware demand.

The Headwind: Markets are experiencing valuation fatigue. Investors are increasingly scrutinizing elevated Big Tech capital expenditures and demanding immediate monetization proof rather than just heavy spending announcements.

Q2 earnings season is kicking into full gear. While overall earnings growth remains solid, concentration risk in the “Magnificent 7” is shifting: wider S&P and mid-cap participation is catching up, creating occasional sector rotation out of mega-cap tech into value and cyclical names.

Inflation metrics have moderated overall, but sticky services data and potential energy price surges keep the rate outlook cautious. Higher terminal rates or delayed rate cuts mechanically press tech valuation multiples (long-duration growth assets), capping runaway upside without strong earnings surprises.