Will the ECB turn EUR/USD bearish?

Daily Briefing, June 17: Economic Events Outlook – ECB Draghi Up Next

Posted Monday, June 17, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 1 min read

The dollar floated near a two-week high early on Monday, as robust US retail sales figures allayed some of the fears about a sharp downturn in the world’s largest economy. That provided some relief to the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. While few expect the Fed to cut rates at Wednesday’s policy review, traders are wagering that policy makers will do just that in coming months.

On Friday, the stronger US retail sales reduced the previously low chance of an easing this week and lifted the dollar; investors are betting that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would leave the door open to future rate cuts in light of increasing economic strains.

Watchlist – Key Economic Events This Week

ECB – German Buba Monthly Report
At 10:00 GMT, the Deutsche Bundesbank will be releasing the monthly report on the German economy. Typically, it contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint.

The optimistic view of Deutsche Bundesbank on German economy will extend support to the single currency Euro. Else, we may see a selling opportunity today.

USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index
Today at 12:30 GMT, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will be releasing the empire state manufacturing index. It’s expected to be 12.1 vs. 17.8. The figure above 0 indicates improving conditions while below means worsening conditions. However, a drop in index value is likely to put pressure on the Fed and the dollar.

ECB President Draghi Speaks
At 17:00 GMT, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to deliver opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal. Direct comments on future monetary policy decision are not likely to happen, which is why the event may go muted.

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