Better Than Expected US GDP but There Is Cause for Concern in the Details - Forex News by FX Leaders

Better Than Expected US GDP but There Is Cause for Concern in the Details

Posted Friday, July 26, 2019 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The USD GDP report was released  a while ago. Expectations were for a 1.9% expansion of the US economy, but taking into consideration the weakness of the data in recent months, there was cause for concern for a softer GDP reading today. The GDP came stronger than expected, but the concern remains among USD traders after seeing the details. Here is the full GDP report:

Headlines:

  • Q2 GDP 2.1% against 1.8% expected
  • GDP YoY 2.3% vs 2.7% prior
  • Q1 GDP 3.1% QoQ annualized
  • Q4 2018 revised to 1.1% from 2.2%
  • 2018 GDP unchanged at 2.9%

Details:

  • Personal consumption Q2 4.3% vs 4.0% expected (fastest increase since Q2 2017)
  • Personal consumption Q1 revised to 1.1% from 0.9%
  • Consumer spending on durable goods 12.9% vs +0.3% previous
  • Consumption added 2.85 pp to GDP
  • Business investment -0.6% vs +4.4% prior (first contraction since 2016)
  • Home investment -1.5% (6th consecutive contraction)
  • Gross private investment cut 1.0 pp from GDP
  • Exports -5.2%
  • Imports 0.1%
  • Trade subtracts 0.65 pp from GDP
  • Inventories +$71.7B (cuts 0.88 pp from GDP)
  • Government consumption adds 0.85 pp to GDP

Inflation:

  • GDP price index Q2 2.4% vs 2.0% expected
  • Prior GDP price index Q1 revised to 1.1% from 0.9%
  • Core PCE Q2 1.8% vs 2.0% expected
  • Prior core PCE revised to 1.1% from 1.2%
  • GDP deflator +2.5%

You can see that there are as many red numbers as they are green in the details of the GDP report. Inventories and trade didn’t drag the GDP down as much as expected, while consumption was pretty strong. Housing remains quite soft and business investment looks concerning. Overall, the report was a bit better than expected but there are certain areas of concern. This report doesn’t change anything for the FED. The USD only climbed around 15 pips after the release.

 

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About the author

Skerdian Meta // Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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