Forex Signals Brief for June 24: Global Economy Slows As Inflation Grows
Yesterday we saw another confirmation of the global economy heading into recession, as services and manufacturing softened worldwide
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
As prices have increased and central banks keep raising interest rates despite not having any effect on prices, traders and investors have been worrying about the global economy falling into a recession. In recent weeks we have seen some soft figures, but yesterday we saw some real proof of that. European and US services and manufacturing reports showed a considerable growth slowdown.
This puts central banks in a difficult position, as more rate hikes will surely mean recession. FED’s Jerome Powell didn’t confirm further strong hikes, which left the USD uncertain, but at this point, all currencies are uncertain about the future.
The Data Agenda Today
Today the economic calendar is light, with the UK retail sales being released earlier, as well as the German Ifo business climate, which weakened further. Later on today we have a number of central bankers speaking, starting with RBA’s Lowe which should have some impact on the AUD, followed by FED’s Bullard who is a hawk, to end with Bank of England (BOC) members. In the US session, we will see if the US UoM consumer sentiment will be revised lower.
Forex Signals Update
Yesterday we opened many trading signals in forex, as well as commodities. The moves were small but there was no direction and there many whipsaws. We were more successful on commodities than on Forex, but at the end of the day, we closed it with a draw, four winning and four losing signals.
GOLD – Sell Signal
Gold continues the downtrend since March, but in the last couple of weeks we have seen Gold trade sideways. The price has been going up and down and we have made some good profits recently trading XAU/USD. Yesterday we decided to open a sell signal here, during the reversal down, boking profit at the day lows around $1,823.
XAU/USD – H1 chart
WTI Oil – Sell Signal
Crude Oil has made a steep reversal since last week, particularly on Friday when it crashed around $10. We have been trying to pick trades during this reversal, selling retraces to the 20 SMA (gray) on the H4 chart. Earlier this week we sold WTI Oil at this moving average, while yesterday we opened another sell signal which also closed in profit.
Crude Oil – 240 minute chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Cryptocurrencies continue to trade sideways after the crash toward the end of last week and the reversal on Sunday. During this week we have seen some attempts to resume the decline again, but buyers have stepped in, showing buying pressure. So, there is a chance that cryptocurrencies might have formed a bottom here.
Are MAs Turning into Support for ETHEREUM?
Ethereum has been showing strong selling pressure since last November, falling below $1,000 last Saturday, befofe the strong reversal on Sunday above that major level again. The continuation since Sunday has been weak but buyers have pushed higher slowly. Now ETH/USD has climbed above the 50 SMA (yellow) which might have turned into support, which is a bullish sign.
ETH/USD H4 chart
The 100 MSA Keeping ETH/BTC Bearish
ETH/BTC used to be on an uptrend for several years, but turned bearish in December last year, and has been on a downtrend, with moving averages acting as resistance on the H4 chart. The latest retrace higher ended below the 100 SMA (green) and we decided to open a sell signal, as sellers are still in control.
ETH/BTC – H4 chart
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