UK Retail Sales Lave GBPUSD Above 1.28

GBPUSD bounced off the MAs on the daily chart, but it has been facing the 200 daily SMA this week where buyers have been stuck.

GBP/USD buyers face the 20 daily SMA

GBPUSD bounced off the MAs on the daily chart, but it has been facing the 200 daily SMA this week where buyers have been stuck. We have had several important economic reports from the UK this week, and this morning we had the UK retail sales figures for July, which were interesting to see after the 1.2% decline in June.

GBP/USD Chart Daily – MAs Are Acting As Support and Resistance

After experiencing a downturn in July, GBP/USD turned bullish in August, steadily climbing into the 1.2870 range despite encountering some resistance. This suggests that buyers are aiming to push the pair higher, possibly toward the 1.30 level. The release of the Q2 GDP report, which came in above forecasts, has further bolstered the pound, providing support even during market pullbacks.

In less than a week, GBP/USD has gained 2 cents, though the pair has shown significant volatility, including a 4-cent surge and subsequent reversal in July as risk sentiment improved. This week has brought important economic data from the UK, including lower-than-expected consumer inflation figures in July’s CPI report and a strong 0.6% GDP growth for Q2, which has contributed to easing market volatility.

UK Retail Sales for July 2024 (Released by ONS – 16 August 2024):

  • Overall Retail Sales:

    • Month-on-Month (MoM): +0.5% (in line with +0.5% expected)
    • Prior MoM: -1.2%
    • Year-on-Year (YoY): +1.4% (matching +1.4% expected)
    • Prior YoY: -0.2% (revised to -0.3%)
  • Retail Sales Excluding Autos and Fuel:

    • MoM: +0.7% (slightly below +0.8% expected)
    • Prior MoM: -1.5% (revised to -1.3%)
    • YoY: +1.4% (in line with +1.4% expected)
    • Prior YoY: -0.8%

Looking at the details, department store sales rose by 4.0%, sales at other non-food stores increased by 2.5%, and non-store retailing saw a 0.7% rise. However, these gains were outweighed by declines in home goods, clothing, and automotive fuel sales, which fell by 0.6%, 0.6%, and 1.9%, respectively. Sales at food stores remained flat for the month. Additionally, a notable gap persists between the total retail sales volume and value, highlighting the ongoing impact of inflation on UK consumer spending since the pandemic began.

GBP/USD Live Chart

GBP/USD
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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