Buy Signal as CHF to USD Gets Going on Hotter US Inflation Data

The USD has been making decent gains in October, sending the CHF to USD rate above the range and today’s CPI inflation figures are helping. Inflation was hotter than expected in the US during September, however, the higher Unemployment Claims which are probably altered by the hurricane, are making the picture a bit unclear for both the buyers and sellers.

After last week’s strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, the CHF/USD exchange rate broke past the 1-cent mark, gaining nearly 2 cents so far in October. However, earlier today, the pair pulled back during the European session, which we used as an opportunity to open a buy signal on USD/CHF . With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly easing and no signs of escalation into a major conflict, market sentiment has shifted positively for this pair in the short term. This pullback provides a promising entry point for buyers.

USD/CHF Chart H1 – Will the MAs Hold as Support?

US September 2024 Consumer Price Index

• US September CPI:
  • Year-over-year: +2.4% (vs. 2.3% expected, 2.5% prior).
  • Month-over-month: +0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected).
  • Unrounded m/m: +0.1604% (vs. +0.081% prior).
• Core CPI:
  • Year-over-year: +3.3% (vs. +3.2% expected).
  • Month-over-month: +0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected).
  • Unrounded m/m: +0.3124%.
• Real weekly earnings:
  • Decreased by 0.1% (vs. +0.5% prior).
• Core Services Excluding Shelter:
  • Increased by +0.554% (vs. +0.239% prior).
• Core-CPI Services Excluding Rent/OER:
  • Rose by +0.404% (vs. +0.328% prior).

These results suggest continued price pressures in core services, which could impact future Fed decisions on interest rates. The market is also taking note of the increase in initial jobless claims at 258K compared to 230K earlier, which are strong statistics that will support the US dollar’s current gain.

USD/CHF Live Chart

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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