XRP Price Forecast: Can XRP Reclaim $1.16 as Ripple’s MiCA Approval and RLUSD Expansion Boost Adoption?

On Wednesday, July 22, XRP was trading around $1.06 to $1.08, putting its market cap at a bit over $67 billion and keeping it in sixth place among all digital assets. The token’s price has been quiet this week, but Ripple keeps building up its institutional business via fresh licensing for regulatory bodies, rolling out its payment rails, and getting more adoption for the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Investors are eyeing the Fed’s July 28 to 29 monetary policy meeting, with yields on Treasuries still pushing back on crypto prices.

Ripple Strengthens European Expansion Under MiCA

Last month, Ripple got authorization in its push to secure a full licensing under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) law. This authorization gives Ripple permission to operate in the 30-country European Economic Area (EEA) as a regulated crypto-asset service provider under a single regulatory regime, as opposed to having to get licenses in every separate EU country.

That authorization boosts Ripple’s capacity to build blockchain payment rails for banks, payments providers and fintech firms in Europe, as part of its push to be one of the most regulated digital-asset companies in the world.

Ripple now has regulatory approvals across multiple markets including Singapore, Dubai, Europe and in the US, giving it an edge as it ramps up business with institutions that will want to operate within a regulatory environment.

RLUSD Continues Expanding Ripple’s Ecosystem

Ripple is also making progress with its RLUSD stablecoin. After getting started in Japan with SBI VC Trade, it’s now trading in the XRP Ledger and in Ethereum. Like USDC, the stablecoin has a US-dollar reserve backing and 1-to-1 backing.

RLUSD isn’t meant to replace XRP, but rather to add more users and liquidity to the XRP Ledger. It’s meant for a variety of uses: cross-border payments, corporates treasury management, institutional settlement, tokenized asset transactions.

XRP Ledger Targets the Tokenization Opportunity

Ripple continues to market its XRPL blockchain as a solution for tokenized financial assets. The network has several institutional-ready features including:

• Native decentralized exchange (DEX)

• Automated Market Maker (AMM)

• Escrow functionality

• Multi-signature accounts

• Token issuance

• Compliance controls

The XRPL management team sees XRPL as a natural infrastructure for tokenized treasury bonds, money market funds, stablecoins and other real-world financial assets. The tokenization market, which deals with tokenized financial products and real-world assets, is expected to reach trillions of dollars by the end of this decade, which is a massive opportunity for XRPL adoption.

ETF Access Continues Improving Institutional Participation

Institutional investors are still finding ways to gain XRP exposure through investment products. The 21Shares XRP ETF (TOXR) is one of the popular exchange traded funds that allows investors to own XRP without having to own or maintain a wallet and self-custody XRP.

ETF inflows are in the weeds, as with much of the crypto industry. Still, regulated ETF and other investment vehicles continue removing roadblocks for institutions entering the market, and generally, improving market infrastructure.

Supply Remains Closely Watched

As per CoinMarketCap, the XRP coin has:

• Circulating Supply: 62.47B XRP

• Max Supply: 100 Billion XRP

• Market Capitalization: ~$67 Billion

• Fully Diluted Valuation: ~$106 Billion

Ripple is actively managing the remainder of the XRP supply through a very public monthly escrow program, releasing up to 1 Billion XRP/month and then sending back unsold XRP back into escrow.

While long-term token supply remains key for XRP valuation, this predictable release rate has removed a lot of ambiguity as it pertains to XRP, unlike past market cycles.

Macro Environment Still Influences XRP

XRP has been improving fundamentals from a company level. However, the coin still largely trades like a general market coin. Investors will continue to watch:

• Fed policy expectations

• US Treasury yields

• Dollar Index (DXY)

• Bitcoin prices

• ETF inflows in crypto

When bonds yields rise and the dollar strengthens, demand for speculative investments like cryptocurrency typically decreases. However, when the market expects loose policy, liquidity often increases in crypto.

Next week, the market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates at its current level. With that expectation in place, the market will closely focus on Chair Powell’s inflation outlook and future rate guidance.

XRP/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls Defend Key Breakout Zone

On a technical level, the market appears healthy as XRP consolidates after its breakout. Since its breakout to $1.1563, XRP price has dipped to the important $1.1260 support level, a key resistance level that was broken during the symmetrical triangle breakout weeks ago. XRP is trading above both the 50-period EMA ($1.1170) and the 100-period EMA ($1.1046), indicating that bulls remain in control for the overall trend.

A bounce off $1.1260 would provide bulls a chance to retest $1.1563. From there, the next upside target is $1.1827. The 14-period RSI (relative strength index) has now moved down to around 52 (neutral), indicating that momentum has cooled from the overbought zone after breakout but doesn’t indicate bearish conditions. If bulls lose control, next major support sits around $1.0890 and could be exposed in the absence of defense above $1.1046.

The Bottom Line

XRP and Ripple continue to build out their institutional business. MiCA is a big win for Ripple, the expansion of RLUSD stablecoin shows Ripple is executing on its vision, and the XRP Ledger continues to develop as a platform for tokenized financial assets. With a circulating supply of 62.47 Billion XRP and a market capitalization of almost $67 billion, Ripple operates one of the largest compliant cryptocurrency projects in the industry.

Cross-border payments, stablecoin, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization are long-term opportunities for XRP. There is however stiff competition from other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, stablecoins, and traditional financial systems that Ripple and XRP compete against in this space. Even if Ripple is commercially successful, it won’t automatically mean XRP demand.

Technically speaking, bulls are in control as long as XRP holds above $1.1170. A move above $1.1563 would indicate the potential for higher prices to the next target of $1.1827. For now, investors will monitor Fed policy, institutional activity, and XRP Ledger activity as the next catalysts for the XRP price.