Why Is SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Down Today? Three Reasons Explained
SPCX settled at $115.26 on July 23, a 6.70% decline that marked its closing low since the June 12 IPO. That drop puts the stock's loss...
Quick overview
- SPCX closed at $115.26 on July 23, marking a 6.70% decline and nearly 49% loss from its June peak.
- The upcoming August 6 lock-up expiry could release up to 911.5 million shares, raising concerns about increased supply in the market.
- SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor has added dilution ahead of the lock-up, compounding investor fears amid a downturn in the AI sector.
- Starship Flight 13, scheduled for tonight, is critical for changing the narrative around SpaceX's reliability and could influence SPCX's stock price significantly.
SPCX settled at $115.26 on July 23, a 6.70% decline that marked its closing low since the June 12 IPO. That drop puts the stock’s loss at close to 49% versus its peak of $225.64 in June, wiping out more than $1T in market value, and it fell further in extended trading to $113.75. Starship Flight 13 has a 90-minute launch window that begins tonight at 6:45 PM ET. Here is why SPCX is down, as Wall Street faces three simultaneous risks:
Why SPCX Is Falling: Three Simultaneous Headwinds
-
The Lock-Up Expiry Is the Biggest Fear on Wall Street
On August 6, two trading sessions following the August 4 earnings release, up to 911.5 million shares owned by insiders, worth about $109B to $116B, will begin to qualify to be sold. That’s more potential supply than the entire $75B SpaceX raised through an IPO. Of course, it’s not certain that insiders will choose to sell. Elon Musk’s approximately 6.4B share interest is not subject to this lock-up restriction until June 12, 2027.
However, markets anticipate such supply even prior to their presence, and $116B of potential supply is a significant number. That’s why some institutional investors who subscribed to the SPCX IPO are selling today to steer clear of being trapped on the wrong side of that wall of supply.
-
The Cursor Acquisition Added Dilution Before the Lock-Up Even Expires
SpaceX earlier announced a $60B all-stock purchase for Cursor, the AI-driven coding company backed by Anysphere. An all-stock purchase means that additional shares will be issued and existing shareholders diluted ahead of the August 6 lock-up tranche.
SpaceX’s proposed acquisition of xAI in the early phases of 2026 has significantly tied its share price to AI sentiment, and the Cursor deal has brought another AI-driven layer at a point when the overall AI sector is in the process of a “bubble-bursting valuation correction’’.
-
Starship’s Reliability Record Is Under Scrutiny
Four of the 33 Raptor engines on Starship’s booster failed to fire a second before liftoff July 16, leading to an immediate launch abort and scrub. That represented the second significant failure in Starship following the IPO. In an earlier May test flight, five Raptor engines cut out before the booster was to begin a landing burn and the Super Heavy ended up tumbling out of control and crashing in the Gulf of Mexico. The FAA opened an investigation in May and recently only cleared SpaceX to restart flights this week.
SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9B in 2025 and an additional loss of $4.28B in Q1 2026. SpaceX is burning massive amounts of cash to develop Starship, with cash from Starlink to fund the program. Every delay in Starship development pushes Starship commercialisation back, with NASA’s planned Artemis IV mission, Starlink V3 satellite constellation, and the orbital AI compute infrastructure thesis all hinging on it.
The Game-Changer: Starship Flight 13 Tonight
The launch window for Starship Flight 13 is a full 90 minutes, beginning at 6:45 PM ET tonight. The vehicle’s payload includes a batch of 20 Starlink V3 satellites, with a mission goal to test out-in-space engine relighting on the Raptor engines and the laser communications between two satellites in orbit.
Two Raptor engines have already been swapped out following the July 16 mission abort. On X, Elon Musk said: “To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced.”
A successful launch for Flight 13 tonight would likely change the narrative around Starship, from repeated failures to one of systematic execution, and send shares higher, likely to the $117 to $120 resistance zone, after hours. Conversely, a third failure would likely take the stock to $110.50 and then $105.
SPCX Technical Analysis: RSI at 29, Oversold, Downtrend Continues
SPCX is trading at $113.75 in after-hours, continuing a decline in a lower-highs and lower-lows channel. It is trading well below both the 50-period EMA ($126.32) and the 200-period EMA ($148.05), which suggests that sellers are still in control from short-term to long-term timeframes.
Resistance levels: $117 (first level) → $123.50 (a first-level sign that the downtrend could start to reverse) → $129.69. Support levels: $110.50 (first level) → $105 (next major target).
The RSI at approximately 29 is in oversold territory. It doesn’t mean that the downtrend will reverse just because the RSI is oversold. It just suggests the odds that there will be a relief trade increase in the short term. That’s why it’s significant that ARK Invest bought $18 million in shares during this pullback.
If Flight 13 is successful on tonight’s mission, SPCX will likely recover in a gap after the hours to $117 to $120. If it’s the third abort in a row, that will lead to a break in $110.50 and the stock will likely move toward $105.
Bulls: Wait until there is a confirmed close above $117 on a daily basis before buying SPCX, place your stop at $110.50.
FAQ: SPCX — Lock-Up Timeline, Starship Progress, and Whether $113 Is a Floor
How much supply could the August 6 lock-up release add to SPCX?
Up to 911.5 million shares, at roughly $127 a share that’s around $116 billion in stock, will become eligible for sale starting Aug. 6, two days after SPCX’s Aug. 4 earnings. Another tranche of 10% of the shares will become sellable only if the stock has been traded more than 30% above its $135 IPO price, which it hasn’t. Musk’s own stake is locked-up until June 2027.
Is SpaceX actually losing money?
Yes, at least in terms of net profit. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, and $4.28 billion during Q1 2026. Starlink’s revenues from subscriptions are huge enough to support the business, but the Starship program’s capital expenditures are massive. That’s why the Aug. 4 earnings release, the first time public investors are able to see the full income statement, will be important. The market is already factoring in a lot of uncertainty around how the net loss will develop and where capex could go for Starship.
What does a successful Starship Flight 13 actually prove?
It needs to show at least three things that the July 16 failure did not, which are the clean ignition of all 33 Raptor engines, stage separation, and the successful launch of the 20 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit. There is no need for a successful return of the Starship Booster or Starship spacecraft during Flight 13. If Flight 13 is successful, it will not address the massive stock supply issue from the lock-up release, nor will it address the dilution from Cursor. However, a successful flight will put to bed for a while at least the serial failures narrative that has been the primary driver of the stock’s weakness.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Related Articles
Sidebar rates
Related Posts
SaveAva
