Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Early yesterday the data from Australia showed that inflation had cooled by 1% in January, while the GDP missed expectations in Q4. But AUD/USD experienced some decent buying momentum despite softer economic numbers from Australia. Stock markets gained some momentum initially but then reversed lower, as PMI manufacturing numbers showed that this sector remains in contraction in Europe and the US.

US ISM manufacturing which was released later on, showed a slight improvement but missed expectations, although the manufacturing prices posted an increase, which ended the USD retreat. The EIA inventories showed a larger-than-expected buildup as well yesterday, but Oil continued to chop around between $76 and $78.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the economic data has been light so far, but soon we will get inflation numbers from the Eurozone. The headline CPI (consumer price index) is expected to cool off to 8.3% in February, but core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3% after last month’s report was revised a tick higher. The headline number was also revised higher. The unemployment claims are expected at 196K, so nothing important to move the markets in the US session apart from the Eurozone inflation report.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility picked up as the USD retreat continued during the European session. The price action slowed in the US session, but markets remained choppy as they kept changing direction. We opened eight trading signals in total, but closed in breakeven with four winning and four losing ones.

GOLD Extending the Retrace Higher 

Gold has been bearish for about a month as the USD resumed the bullish momentum and the50 SMA (yellow) has been providing resistance on the H4 chart, pushing the highs lower. But, this moving average was broken and yesterday buyers continued to push higher, so our sell Gold signal closed in loss, but the 100 SMA was acting as resistance.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart 

Shorting NZD/USD 

NZD/USD showed buying momentum in early trading, but buyers ran into the 100 SMA (green) on the H4 chart. Buyers pierced this moving average for a short period, but NZD/USD has returned back below it now, while the stochastic indicator is overbought and reversing down. So, it seemed like the retrace higher might be over and the main trend is still down, so we decided to take this opportunity and open a sell NZD/USD signal.

EUR/USD – 240 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies are in another consolidating period at the moment after the uptrend during January and most of February, with Bitcoin pushing above $25,000 several times. Crypto coins retreated lower last week though as the USD advanced higher and are now in another consolidating period, although we saw some bullish momentum pick up yesterday, so let’s see if buyers will come back this week.

BITCOIN Consolidating Before the Next Move

Bitcoin is finding it difficult to resume the bullish trend this week so buyers are showing some signs of exhaustion. BTC retreated below moving averages on the H4 chart but yesterday buyers managed to push the price back above all of them, which is a positive sign, so let’s see where this goes from here.

BTC/USD – 240 minute chart

Buyers Slowly Returning in ETHEREUM 

Ethereum retreated and fell below moving averages on the H1 chart below, after failing to hold gains above $1,700. The 200 SMA (purple) was acting as resistance for some time, but yesterday we saw a decisive move by buyers who pushed ETH above this moving average, which should turn into support if the trend is to turn bullish.

ETH/USD – 240 minute chart