Gold at $2,414 Ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Speech and Key Economic Events Ahead

Gold closed the week at $2,414.715, up 1.59%. The 4-hour chart identifies the pivot point at $2,405.68, which is crucial for the near-term

Written by: Arslan Ali Butt • Sunday, May 19, 2024 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Sunday, May 19, 2024

Gold closed the week at $2,414.715, up 1.59%. The 4-hour chart identifies the pivot point at $2,405.68, which is crucial for the near-term trend. Immediate resistance is at $2,423.07, followed by $2,438.75 and $2,454.05. Immediate support stands at $2,393.88, with further levels at $2,374.40 and $2,355.35.

The RSI is at 70, suggesting overbought conditions. The 50-day EMA is positioned at $2,376.26. The upward channel near the $2,405 level, combined with a bullish engulfing candle formation, indicates a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

Holding above the pivot point could sustain the upward momentum, while a break below $2,405.68 might lead to a sharp decline. The outlook remains bullish above $2,405, but caution is warranted below this level. The market’s response to the pivot point will be pivotal.

In addition to the technical landscape, several fundamental events this week could influence gold prices. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 12:30 AM and FOMC Member Waller at 6:00 PM. Their comments could hint at future monetary policy directions, affecting gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Tuesday features Treasury Secretary Yellen at 1:00 PM and Waller again at 6:00 PM. Market reactions will depend on any shifts in economic policy or outlook.

Wednesday brings existing home sales data at 7:00 PM, with expectations of 4.21M versus 4.19M previously, and the FOMC meeting minutes at 11:00 PM, providing deeper insights into Fed deliberations.

Thursday’s unemployment claims at 5:30 PM (forecast at 221K versus 222K prior) and PMI reports at 6:45 PM (Manufacturing PMI expected at 50.1, Services PMI at 51.5) will offer further economic health indicators. New home sales data at 7:00 PM is anticipated to show a decline to 674K from 693K.

Friday’s key data includes core durable goods orders at 5:30 PM (forecast at 0.1% versus 0.0% prior) and durable goods orders at -0.5% (down from 0.9%). The revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 7:00 PM is expected at 67.7, slightly up from 67.4.

Additionally, FOMC Member Waller will speak again at 6:35 PM, potentially influencing market sentiment further. Each of these events could trigger volatility, with hawkish tones likely pressuring gold, while dovish commentary or weaker data could support higher prices.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Ali Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.