Intel (INTC) Stock Analysis: $126 After Back-to-Back 10%+ Sessions -Apple Deal, SambaNova Approval, and the Valuation Question

Quick overview

On May 9, INTC reached $130.57 during the day, marking a new 52-week high, before closing near $126. This followed two days of gains over 10%, sparked by news of a preliminary Apple foundry deal and a tech rally after the latest jobs report. The stock has climbed about 500% from its 2025 low of $18.97. Intel now has a higher market cap than Oracle. The bullish outlook is strong, but Morningstar’s fair value remains $91.

Two Sessions, Two Catalysts: Both Still Unfolding

Intel jumped 13.96% after reaching a preliminary agreement to make chips for Apple. This is the biggest foundry customer news since Intel started its manufacturing turnaround. The deal is still early—no orders yet—and making these chips will be a major challenge. Still, it’s clear that Apple wants to reduce its reliance on TSMC, and Intel’s 18A node, with yields now between 55% and 75%, is the only US-based option that meets Apple’s needs.

The second catalyst today is that US regulators have approved Intel to expand its partnership with SambaNova, an AI chip company. This lets Intel invest more in SambaNova’s systems. SambaNova’s RDU architecture is one of the few options besides Nvidia’s CUDA for AI inference tasks. By getting more involved, Intel is moving into the fast-growing AI inference market, which the next CEO has called the biggest growth area in AI computing.

A broader boost came from April’s jobs report, which showed 115,000 new jobs, beating the expected 65,000. This pushed Nasdaq futures up 0.75% and lifted all semiconductor stocks. Intel’s value has now passed Oracle’s, and its market cap has topped $600 billion for the first time, showing just how much the stock has been re-rated.

Valuation Tension at $126

There’s no debate about the bullish case—Intel’s foundry wins, 18A progress, and AI strategy are real. The issue is the math. The forward P/E is about 125 to 198 times, depending on which EPS you use, with Q2 guidance at $0.21 non-GAAP EPS and $14.33 billion in revenue. Intel’s trailing EPS is -$0.63, and its price-to-sales ratio is close to 9, which doesn’t justify a stock price over $100 by normal standards. Morningstar’s fair value is $91, so the current price is about 37% higher.

Supporters of the stock argue that Intel isn’t being valued on past earnings. Instead, the market sees it as a potential dominant US foundry, which is a key asset given the risks of relying too much on TSMC. The $8.9 billion in CHIPS Act funding and the government’s 10% equity stake show that Washington supports this view. If Apple’s preliminary agreement turns into real orders, it could provide the revenue Intel needs to close its earnings gap.

INTC Technical Analysis: Channel Breakout, $130 to $136 in Focus

The 4-hour chart shows a clear breakout above the top of the rising channel. The move has passed the 1.0 Fibonacci level and now targets $130.39 to $136.44 as the projected range.

Resistance levels are at $130.39 (Fibonacci target), $136.44 (channel projection), and $130.57 (recent 52-week high). Support is found at $117.50 to $120 (channel midline and moving average cluster) and $115 as a deeper floor.

The RSI is between 71 and 78, which is high but not as extreme as levels seen before previous short-term pullbacks.

Trade setup: Go long above $126.50, target $130.39 to $136.44, and set a stop below $117.50.

Next earnings are on July 23. Q2 FY2026 will be the first time we see revenue confirmation from the Apple foundry deal.

FAQ: INTC—Apple Deal Progress, Valuation at 125x, and the $136 Target

How confirmed is the Apple foundry deal?

Intel has a preliminary agreement to make chips for Apple. This means the terms are agreed in principle, but no production orders have been made yet. Making Apple’s A-series and M-series chips is a big challenge, as they are some of the most complex chips produced in large numbers. If a production order is confirmed, it will be announced in Intel’s Q2 earnings call on July 23.

Is Intel overvalued at $126 after a 500% rally?

By traditional measures, yes—Intel looks overvalued. Its forward P/E is between 125 and 198, and it has negative trailing EPS, which means there’s no room for mistakes. A forward P/E of about 125, based on Q2 guidance of $0.21 EPS, doesn’t justify a stock price over $100 by normal standards. The bullish view is that Intel should be valued for its potential as the top US foundry, a case backed by CHIPS Act funding, Apple discussions, and the SambaNova AI partnership. However, this hasn’t yet been proven by large-scale foundry revenue.

What is the Intel stock price target for 2026?

TradingView analysis estimate Intel’s price could be anywhere from $45 to $200, which is the widest range for any major semiconductor stock. This shows real uncertainty about how quickly Intel can deliver on its foundry plans. The short-term Fibonacci target is $130.39 to $136.44. Morningstar’s fair value is $91. For the stock to reach $150 or more, Intel needs confirmed Apple production and 18A yields above 75%. The next key date is the Q2 earnings report on July 23.

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Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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