Intel (INTC) Stock Analysis: $113 All-Time High on Apple Foundry Talks – 170% Rally Reaches Valuation Crossroads
Quick overview
- Intel's stock reached an all-time high of $113.01 on May 6, following a 13% surge after news of potential talks with Apple and Samsung for US chip manufacturing.
- The possibility of Apple using Intel for chip production could significantly impact Intel's business, especially if it leads to contracts for CPUs for Macs and iPads by 2027.
- Despite a strong Q1 2026 revenue of $13.6 billion, Intel's foundry division is still facing losses, although improvements in yields are expected to enhance margins in the long term.
- Technical analysis indicates that Intel's stock is trading above key resistance levels, with targets set between $117 and $122, but high valuation metrics raise concerns about potential volatility.
INTEL closed at $113.01 on May 6, a new all-time high after blasting 13% higher on May 5 following a Bloomberg report that Apple is in super early talks with Intel and Samsung to make core processors in the US. The stock’s already had a wild ride this year with a 174% gain so far and an astonishing 430% pop from its low in 2025 of just $18.97.
The Apple connection has the potential to be a real game-changer – IF it happens, that is. The wild valuation of 125x forward earnings though – that’s something Intel can’t afford to ignore.
The Apple Catalyst: How This Changes Everything
Apple’s looking at using Intel and Samsung to manufacture chips in the US – a major step away from relying on Taiwan Semiconductor, which does have a high level of risk due to Taiwan’s geopolitical position. The talks are still pretty informal and no orders have been put in – but the possibility already got Intel up 13% on a single day.
This is a Big Deal. Apple designs the A and M-series chips that power every single iPhone, iPad and Mac – which are some of the most complex and cutting-edge chips in the world. If Intel even gets a toehold on that business (and Ming-Chi Kuo thinks it could make CPUs for Macs and iPads as early as 2027) – that would be a huge win for the company.
Intel’s 18A and 14A processes would suddenly be validated – in a way that no government contract ever could. Ben Bajarin at Creative Strategies thinks Apple’s further along than just initial talks – they’re moving fast on this one.
This Apple deal is just the icing on the cake – Intel’s got a whole bunch of other things going on too. Nvidia just pretty much invested a whopping $5 billion in Intel and is using Intel’s foundry to make its next generation of GPUs for 2028. Tesla’s tapped Intel to make chips for Elon Musk’s Terafab project. Microsoft is already a customer and Intel has just bought out its Fab 34 Ireland plant for a cool $14.2 billion.
Q1 2026 – Fundamentals, Progress – and one big Problem
Revenue for Q1 2026 came in at $13.6 billion – a 7% jump from last year – beating expectations by 9% and Data Center and AI revenue went up a whoppin 22% to $5.05 billion. And although foundry losses narrowed to $2.4 billion as yields improved across a bunch of different product lines – foundry is still losing money.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that the 18A ramp is moving forward – just a bit slower than the company had hoped. Margins are expected to bounce back to 40% or better over the long-term – just as soon as yields are good and the volume starts flowing in on the sort of customers who really matter.
The next earnings report is due July 23 – Q2 will be the real test of whether the Apple talks turn into actual production deals.
INTC Technical Analysis: Shattering the Channel, Next Stop $117-$122
The 2-hour chart just shows Intel blowing right on through the top of its ascending channel and a swing high near $110-$111. Volume was 198 million shares on May 5 – which is way higher than normal and gets our attention.
Resistances to watch are at $117.01 (a Fibonacci extension) and $121.99 (a target based on the channel). If you’re long, you want to be above $112.50.
RSI is at 71-80 right now – which is a pretty high number. This stock is trading at a forward P/E of about 125 – which is pretty extreme and may be setting up a situation where any bad news about foundry business kills the stocks price pretty fast.
Trade Setup – Long above $112.50 | Target $117-$122 | Stop below $106.69.
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