Walmart Stock Forecast Today: WMT Tests $112.43 Resistance as Oil Surge Clouds Consumer Outlook

WMT trades near $112 as oil surge pressures consumers ahead of Aug 20 earnings and this week’s FOMC. Key level $112.43, target $115.63, $138 analyst target. On Monday, July 27, Walmart (WMT) is hovering around $112.07, trading between a low of $109.70 and a high of $112.50. The stock is trying to gain some footing after it found support at $106.80. Currently, shares are trading about 17% below their 52-week peak of $135.16.

There’s a tug-of-war going on between the retailer’s longstanding reputation as a safe-haven defensive stock and growing fears that an oil-fueled inflation spike will harm its low-income shoppers. The $112.43 price level is the near-term resistance level that’s in focus.

The Paradox Driving Walmart’s Pressure

Walmart is often viewed as a classic defensive stock; when budgets are strained, customers trade down to its offerings. This has traditionally provided a safe space for the stock during downturns. But the type of economic strain we’re facing today, caused by soaring oil prices, is different.

Last week, Brent crude traded through $100, and WTI traded near $90. This is a direct cost driver on Walmart’s freight and logistics costs, as well as those fuel pumps they operate. It also acts as an unexpected headwind for Walmart’s lower-income shoppers, the bread-and-butter of the business. Early this month, Jim Cramer said Walmart fell on concerns that consumers are squeezed when gas prices are higher. The tension is that higher oil prices lead shoppers to Walmart, but higher oil prices also reduce the ability for those shoppers to spend at the store.

In response, Walmart has started cutting back prices on thousands of groceries and household items across its stores in the U.S. and Mexico. The range of items affected stretches from ground beef to 24-packs of Coca-Cola at both Walmart and Sam’s Club.

This is an effort to hold onto market share and to make its value proposition clear. But this is also putting pressure on Walmart’s margins while oil costs are higher. BofA said today’s backdrop could be good for Walmart to take share gains, arguing the potential to add market share is greater than the short-term margin impact.

Then there’s the fact that on July 23, WMT dropped after a profit miss in Mexico sparked fears on second-quarter earnings results. The next report won’t come until Aug. 20, so investors are left with a month of potential headline noise leading to the earnings release, including the FOMC meeting this week.

FOMC Meeting Overhang

The Fed convenes this week on July 28-29. UBS strategists noted earlier this week that they “wouldn’t rule out rate hikes regardless of what happens with oil prices”, and on Friday, traders saw odds of a rate hike in September jump to 80%. This higher-for-longer rates environment works both ways for a consumer defensive name like Walmart. The Fed is concerned about the pressure higher interest rates will put on the discretionary spending power of Walmart’s core consumer base.

But the Fed will also be mindful of how higher rates will boost the appeal of defensive names vs. higher-priced growth names. With a P/E ratio of 40.49, the stock isn’t as much a bargain as it has historically been, limiting the discount a defensive stock can ask to be safe in this environment.

WMT Technical Analysis: $112.43 Is In Focus

Walmart bounced above the 23.6% Fibonacci level of $109.47, and the 38.2% retracement at $111.11. The 50-period EMA at $110.55 was reclaimed as well. The RSI is rising and near 69, so there’s some buying pressure building on the back end of the day.

The $112.43 level is what needs to be cleared to get the ball rolling on the upside. If Walmart can punch through, that opens the door to $113.75, and then the 200-period EMA around $113.49 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $115.63.

Resistance: $112.43, $113.75, $115.63, $118.05. Support: $111.08, $109.47, $106.78. Trade Setup: Buy if the resistance is broken above $112.43. Take profits at $113.75, then again at $115.63, and finally $118.05. The stop loss goes below $109.47. If WMT can’t hold the $111.08 level, we get a retest of $109.47 and the next major support at $106.78.

FAQ: WMT, The Impact of Oil, Earnings Timing and the $112 Setup

Why does the oil price surge hurt Walmart specifically?

Higher crude oil prices raise the cost of freight and logistics for Walmart, as well as putting a dent in the savings of its core low-income customer base. Walmart also runs gas pumps, so that means higher gas prices affect both the costs at the store and the savings of its shoppers. To maintain its market share, the store has started to cut the prices of thousands of groceries and household items across its U.S. and Mexican stores. But these price cuts could be squeezing margins for Walmart as oil costs rise, putting the company between a rock and a hard place.

When is Walmart’s next earnings date?

Walmart has an Aug. 20, 2026, earnings date. This provides a month of headlines in the form of an FOMC meeting to close out the week of July 28-29, and then the company will report earnings later in the following month. Analysts have said Q2 could be the “low-water mark” for the stock as customers feel the pressure.

Should investors buy Walmart stock at $112?

According to 43 analysts, Walmart has an average target of $138.27, which means there’s 25% upside from here. There’s also a strong consensus Buy among these analysts. The stock looks technically constructive above $109.47, with a P/E ratio of 40.49 leaving little room for error on the earnings. A breakout above $112.43 is a clean buy signal. A loss below $109.47 means the recent recovery could be under pressure.