Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Price Forecast: NASA Setback Tests Resilience in Lunar Economy Race

Quick overview

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is currently trading within a rather choppy technical setup, with shares up 12.16% intraday at $39.11. The space services firm has set itself up for a corrective consolidation on the two-hour time-frame (flag pattern), where there is a tight squeeze of pressure between structural tailwind growth from a record backlog and local near-term disappointment from the NASA award cycle.

Today’s LUNR Price Drivers

Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) Program Omission: The short-term price targets were negatively impacted by the news that the space services firm was not awarded one of the first two Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) contracts to NASA as a part of the first phase of the program, where the government awarded contracts to Astrolab and Lunar Outpost. As a result, 17% of the speculative weak hands were shaken out.

Backlog: Regardless of the competition from NASA, the company’s long-term fundamentals remain strong with a record backlog and earnings results. The firm recorded a record $1.1 billion of backlog at the quarter end and Q1 revenue of $186.7 million in a record performance period with positive adjusted EBITDA.

Artemis Date: While the stock is taking it on the chin for the short-term, the long-term investor interest is still in favor as they prepare for the upcoming NASA Artemis III launch crew in June on the 9th. This is what is currently driving a positive risk sentiment across the broader space market.

LUNR Technical Analysis of Intuitive Machines Stock

On the two-hour chart, the LUNR price action has set up a clear breakdown setup, where there was a sharp high-volume rejection off of the multi-week structural resistance price levels around the $44.88 highs. As a result, this suggests that the short-term distribution has overtaken the longer-term post-earnings fair value estimates.

Furthermore, the price action has broken through its local price downtrend resistance. This has created a sharp pullback to the local horizontal support levels between the $39.11 and $40.48 levels.

Meanwhile, the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) is sitting neutral at 51.89 but shows a slight tilt to the bearish side. Additionally, the price action has produced long upper shadows over the last two days, where there has been a significant rejection from local sellers.

This is particularly relevant as long as the price action manages to hold onto the local price uptrend resistance levels from the $28.46 bottoms. If the stock fails to maintain this resistance, it will set it up to continue falling toward the local $28.46 bottoms.

• Resistance Levels: The primary LUNR price resistance levels that are key to be aware of include the horizontal resistance level at $39.11 and $40.48, as well as the local trendline resistance level near $44.88.
• Support Levels: On the flip side, the primary LUNR price support levels to be cognizant of consist of the local price uptrend resistance level at $38.00, the $35.46 price level (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level), and the major price support level at $28.46.

Intuitive Machines LUNR Trading Plan

With the current price action trending directly into its primary support levels, we see a very high-probability breakdown continuation setup setup to play out.

• Entry Order: A Sell Stop execution order should be initiated when the price action decisively closes below the local horizontal support level on the two-hour time-frame at $39.10.
• Take Profit Targets: The primary price targets for a sell-stop execution order include the short-term price support target at the local price uptrend resistance level (T1) at $38.00 and the secondary price target (T2) at the major price support level at $35.46.
• Stop Loss: Our stop loss should be placed at the last remaining horizontal pivot resistance level (which has now become the local price support level) at $40.48.

Conclusion

Our short-term technical LUNR price outlook is bearish at the current technical levels, where we see the stock set up for a very tight range to test out the medium-term price trend. While the long-term price outlook is still bullish, as the price target estimates for the major price targets from the likes of Roth Capital, among other Wall Street firms have suggested.

However, we see the short-term sentiment dominating price action at the moment, where they suggest the price could reach $75.00 over time on the back of strong performance of the Nova-C lunar lander deliveries.

As a result, traders should remain cautious when trading these short-term price levels as they await the short-term volume confirmation near the local price trend levels, using the current short-term corrective pullbacks to manage their structural exposure during the next macro-driven contract wave.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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