Bitcoin Price Forecast: $65K Macro Target Reopens as Saylor Triggers Secret Buying Signal

Quick overview

Bitcoin started the new week with a negative performance, but after some time it managed to recover its losses and crossed the $63,500 target. At the time we are writing this article, BTC is trading at $62,765 level, showing gains of more than 1 percent.

However, the main reason for this positive performance could be some hints that Strategy chairman Michael Saylor is going to buy more Bitcoin. An idea of this can be taken from his mysterious message that he posted on social media, but nothing is confirmed yet. Still, this kind of hint increases BTC demand in the market, increases investors’ confidence, which supports BTC price and pushes it upward.

On the other hand, the war between Iran and Israel has started again, which has created a very high level of fear in the market, which is not good for riskier assets like BTC. This is preventing BTC from moving further upward and may even push it down if conditions get worse.

Another thing that is negatively affecting Bitcoin is the strong U.S. jobs data that was released last week. This strong data has increased the belief in the market that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high, and this is considered very bad for BTC because at such times people invest in less risky assets instead of risky assets like BTC.

Saylor Bitcoin Buying Signal News

Strategy company chairman Michael Saylor has posted something related to Bitcoin on X, due to which investors’ minds started working and they began to think that Strategy company might be buying Bitcoin again. Investors thought this because last time when Strategy bought a large amount of Bitcoin, they also posted something similar on their social media before filing SEC filings (called 8-K reports).

Since Strategy company holds a very large amount of Bitcoin and they often buy BTC worth millions of dollars, even a small signal from this company can create movement in the market. That is why investors are keeping their eyes on this company’s moves. However, this post is not a guarantee that the company will buy BTC again, so there is also risk here.

Moreover, Strategy is also going to hold a vote regarding changing the dividend payment date for its special shares, and at the same time it has also given a hint. Both of these things matter a lot because the company uses its shares to raise money so that it can buy more Bitcoin. So, if we look at it, this voting result will show how easily the company can raise money in the future. Investors are keeping their eyes on both things because both matter a lot. Saylor’s Bitcoin posts and this voting are two different things, but investors are linking them together because both can have an impact on future Bitcoin purchases.

Israel-Iran War Bitcoin Impact

From a geopolitical perspective, the war between Israel and Iran has started again. Both sides have carried out air attacks against each other. There was a short ceasefire, but after these air attacks, the situation appears to be changing very rapidly. Iran has launched missiles towards northern Israel, and in response, Israel has carried out airstrikes on Iran. This situation has created an atmosphere of fear in the market because these attacks can also turn into a much larger war. Iran has also said that it will continue attacks in the coming weeks, which is further increasing fear in the market.

At the same time, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is also increasing tension. This situation can affect Bitcoin and crypto prices.

BTCUSDT Daily Chart: Double Bottom Sticking Around Key 0 Fib Assistance Amid Deeply Oversold RSI

The bitcoin (63,046 bucks) is now forming the right side of a pretty clear double backside on the daily chart (orange circles indicating two distinct higher lows at the 61,118 major horizontal assistance (0 Fib)). Price is still below the red slanting trend line from above 100 thousand high and also below EMA50 (72,856) and EMA200 (79,756), which shows a clear lower highs trend.

This shows us a double backside at a key foundation, where buyers are probably accumulating around the lower low at a key support. This is the beginning of a market shift as sellers may be exhausted as shown by the two major higher lows.

Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low gives us a guide on the upside: the first level of resistance at 0.236 (64,207), the next at 0.382 (66,117). Other levels of resistance at 0.5 (67,661), 0.618 (69,205), 1.0 (74,204) and 1.618 (82,291) on a clear breakout of the neckline.

RSI (14) of 26.23 is deeply oversold, showing divergence on the lower lows in price, indicating that selling pressure may be exhausting in the near-term, and that we are starting a bullish trend reversal. This is also evident by the volume increasing at the lows and the bullish candle at the lows, indicating that buyers are getting back in at the double backside. The setup of double bottom formation at key support from 0 Fib, EMA and RSI oversold divergence is a high probability setup, which can be traded as a tactical bullish opportunity within the macro downtrend if overhead supply clears.

Trade Idea: Long BTCUSDT at 63,046 above 64,210, stop below 61,118, target at 69,205 on double bottom breakout (0.618 of Fibonacci retracement)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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