The Euro has Reversed

EUR/USD 1.1510 Swing Low Stands Tall

Posted Thursday, June 21, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

During the U.S. overnight, the EUR/USD made another run at cracking the 1.1500 handle. The effort proved to be short-lived. Buyers stepped in and defended the 1.1510 area vigorously. With a wide-open economic calendar facing this pair for the next 48 hours, traders appear content to settle the week between 1.1600 and 1.1500.

Economic Metrics

Earlier today, there were a few economic data releases worthy of note out of the U.S. A quick look at the numbers:

Event                                                                        Actual         Projections

Continuing Jobless Claims (June 8)                       1.723M           1.730M

Initial Jobless Claims(June 15)                                 218K                 220K

Philadelphia FED Index (June)                                 19.9                  29.0

The jobs data has come in as expected but the Philly FED Index has grossly underperformed expectations. While only a secondary metric, the Philly FED Index does carry some weight with currency traders. After all, it is a FED metric — unexpected low readings have plagued the Greenback throughout the early U.S. session.

EUR/USD Technicals

In a recommendation from Wednesday, I outlined a long play from the Swing Low in the EUR/USD. The trade was a success, hitting the take profit without any significant drawdown.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart
EUR/USD, Daily Chart

The prolonged “L” formation we discussed yesterday remains intact. As long is rotation is the rule, then fading the extremes is a solid way to play this market.

Bottom Line: For the remainder of the session, shorts from just beneath the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the current wave is good trade location to the bear. Sells at 1.1634 with an initial stop at 1.1652 produce 28 pips when adhering to a 1:1 risk vs reward scenario.

At press time, price is pushing the 1.1600 handle. In the event we see 1.1601 catch some bids, this trade will likely be in play by today’s forex close.

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