EUR/USD 1.1510 Swing Low Stands Tall
Shain Vernier • 1 min read
During the U.S. overnight, the EUR/USD made another run at cracking the 1.1500 handle. The effort proved to be short-lived. Buyers stepped in and defended the 1.1510 area vigorously. With a wide-open economic calendar facing this pair for the next 48 hours, traders appear content to settle the week between 1.1600 and 1.1500.
Earlier today, there were a few economic data releases worthy of note out of the U.S. A quick look at the numbers:
Event Actual Projections
Continuing Jobless Claims (June 8) 1.723M 1.730M
Initial Jobless Claims(June 15) 218K 220K
Philadelphia FED Index (June) 19.9 29.0
The jobs data has come in as expected but the Philly FED Index has grossly underperformed expectations. While only a secondary metric, the Philly FED Index does carry some weight with currency traders. After all, it is a FED metric — unexpected low readings have plagued the Greenback throughout the early U.S. session.
In a recommendation from Wednesday, I outlined a long play from the Swing Low in the EUR/USD. The trade was a success, hitting the take profit without any significant drawdown.
The prolonged “L” formation we discussed yesterday remains intact. As long is rotation is the rule, then fading the extremes is a solid way to play this market.
Bottom Line: For the remainder of the session, shorts from just beneath the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the current wave is good trade location to the bear. Sells at 1.1634 with an initial stop at 1.1652 produce 28 pips when adhering to a 1:1 risk vs reward scenario.
At press time, price is pushing the 1.1600 handle. In the event we see 1.1601 catch some bids, this trade will likely be in play by today’s forex close.