Oil Prices Down Despite OPEC Keeping Production Cuts

The trading day for crude futures concluded with the Oil price at $79, reflecting a decrease of -1% or -$0.2 for the day from the top. Analyzing the daily chart, the price might find support at the 100-day moving average tomorrow, which stands at $78.20.

OPEC crude Oil output cuts expected to remain in place
OPEC crude Oil output cuts expected to remain in place

Continue reading “Oil Prices Down Despite OPEC Keeping Production Cuts”

Should You Hold on to Bitcoin?

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to $67,500 (BTC/USD) as it appears to be treading water and hardly going anywhere at the moment. Is this a good time to bail on the coin?

Should investors sell Bitcoin now?

This leading cryptocurrency token is now down by 3.35% for the past week, making it difficult for some investors to see it surging anytime soon. Bitcoin has not passed above $70,000 in several days, and there is concern that it might not do so again for a while.

 

Adding to the level of fear over Bitcoin is the high US inflation rate. After a recent FOMC meeting, it became clear that the current high inflation level is very hardy. The Federal Reserve is hesitant to cut interest rates with inflation still so high. There will be further FOMC members speaking this week to address these concerns, and their statements could make it even harder for Bitcoin to rally.

When Will Bitcoin Climb Again?

The crypto token could be in for another bull run soon, regardless of these hindering factors. The coin surged recently on the news that spot ether ETFs were about to be approved. If we start to see some positive inflation news, that will certainly help investors take a chance on Bitcoin again.

We are seeing a surge among meme coins like Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) right now. Their strong performances show that there is still plenty of consumer interest in altcoins even with the economy in a tight spot. Plus, Ethereum (ETH) has been quite bullish recently, which could help lift Bitcoin to a higher price point as a result.

We would advise against selling Bitcoin right now. It looks to be undervalued at this moment, and there is a very good chance that it will go up in the near future. It would be unfortunate to try to sell it now before that happens. Bitcoin may meet resistance again at $70,000, but we see no problem with it moving to a new record high as soon as next month.

 

 

Chile: Dollar Rises Nearly $10 Amid Growing Pessimism in the U.S. Credit Market

The dollar index climbed by 0.4%, while copper prices dropped by 1.3%, driven by the rise in long-term interest rates.

On Wednesday, the dollar saw an increase, driven by the decline in copper prices and a second session of massive sell-offs in long-term U.S. sovereign bonds.

By midday, the dollar rose by $9.01 to $906.53 in the Bloomberg series – reaching a peak of $910 this morning – bouncing back again after closing below the $900 mark. The dollar index surged by 0.4% to 105 points, while Comex copper fell by 1.42% to $4.79 per pound.

This uptick in the dollar’s value is mainly attributed to statements made by Neel Kashkari, which begin to undermine hopes of an imminent reduction in U.S. monetary policy. Specifically, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis stated that “future interest rate cuts should be postponed until substantial progress can be seen in inflation.”

On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond continued to climb, reaching 4.6% for the first time since early May. The 10-year treasury is a key instrument for economic and financial models worldwide.

Treasury bond prices are declining this morning, pushing yields higher as investors brace for Wednesday’s Treasury auction, following two tepid auctions yesterday. The increase in Treasury supply and tough talk from Fed officials have put pressure on bonds.

The Mexican Stock Exchange Drops Sharply, Poised for Seventh Decline in Eight Sessions

The Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) is experiencing significant losses in midweek trading, with local indices falling as investors await comments from Federal Reserve officials and remain cautious ahead of Sunday’s elections.

The benchmark S&P/BMV IPC index, which tracks the performance of the most traded local stocks, is down 1.38% to 54,424.90 points. Similarly, the FTSE BIVA index, representing the Institutional Stock Exchange, has dropped 1.27% to 1,115.55 points.

Within the reference index, most stocks are trading in negative territory. Leading the declines are shares of the mining company Industrias Peñoles, which have plummeted 5.86% to 255.50 pesos, followed by Inbursa, down 4.36% to 44.31 pesos.

Global equity markets are exhibiting negative trends following comments from Federal Reserve officials that pushed expectations for a rate cut to November. The proximity of Mexico’s elections is adding pressure to the local market.

The local stock exchange is on track for its seventh decline in eight sessions, impacted by heightened risk aversion. During this period of pressure, which began on Monday the 20th, the S&P/BMV IPC has accumulated a loss of more than 7 percent.

Investors are closely monitoring the situation, particularly the upcoming U.S. inflation report, as well as the outcome of Mexico’s elections, which could further influence market sentiment and volatility.

Wall Street Declines Affected by Treasury Yields

The three major Wall Street indices are operating with losses in mid-week trading. The averages are down, pressured by the increase in Treasury yields, driven by changes in bets on interest rate cuts.

The leading Dow Jones index, composed of 30 giant stocks, fell by 0.92% to 38,496.64 points, while the S&P 500 index of 500 stocks dropped by 0.64% to 5,272.18 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.46% to 16,941.12 points.

Treasury yields reached their highest levels in almost four weeks after unexpected consumer confidence data released on Tuesday and comments from the Federal Reserve that shifted bets on rate cuts.

Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, stated that the probability of a rate hike is low but not impossible, and more data is needed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for rate cuts shifted from September to November.

[[SPX-graph]]

The Dow Jones was trading at its lowest level in almost a month, with all major subsectors of the S&P 500 declining. The Nasdaq dropped after surpassing the 17,000-point mark for the first time on Tuesday, driven by Nvidia’s stock performance.

The Fed’s Beige Book, expected to be released later, is anticipated to provide insights into the state of the economy. Markets will also be watching comments from the heads of the New York and Atlanta Fed, John Williams and Raphael Bostic, respectively.

Overall, the market’s decline is a reaction to rising Treasury yields and shifting expectations regarding future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, contributing to a cautious trading environment.

Mexican Peso Loses Ground Due to Dollar Global Strength

The Mexican peso depreciated against the dollar on Wednesday morning, losing ground due to a global advance of the greenback while markets await new comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

The spot exchange rate stands at 16.9351 pesos per dollar. Compared to yesterday’s official close of 16.8049 pesos, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), this movement represents a loss of 13.02 centavos or 0.78 percent for the peso.

The dollar’s price is operating within a broad range, with a high of 16.9470 pesos and a low of 16.7430 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, increased by 0.21% to 104.83 points.

The peso is retreating while the dollar is advancing, driven by the rising yield of Treasury bonds. This occurs after recent comments from Fed members have dampened expectations of interest rate cuts.

[[USD/MXN-graph]]

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, interest rate futures now indicate that the first Fed rate cut will not occur until November. Just yesterday, the first rate cut was anticipated for September.

Statements from Fed officials have influenced these expectations. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, mentioned that while the probability of a rate hike is low, it is not impossible, and more data is needed to make a decision.

Meanwhile, it is expected that today, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at public events.

On the local front, traders will be focused on Banxico’s quarterly report, which will be published at noon. Another factor to consider will be the closing campaigns of the presidential candidates ahead of Sunday’s election.

Shiba Inu Just Entered the Top Ten Crypto Rankings

Meme coins are gaining market interest right now, as Shiba Inu (SHIB) was able to pass up Cardano (ADA) and make its way into the top ten cryptocurrency coins.

Shiba Inu could surge again soon.

Shiba Inu is up to $0.00002659 (SHIB/USD) right now, which is a 1.28% increase from Tuesday. Despite the achievement of passing Cardano, this is not as high as Shiba Inu has climbed this year. Earlier in March, the coin managed to reach a price point of $0.00003592.

 

Shiba Inu did not stay above its competing coin for very long. However, it is ranked #10 overall among cryptocurrencies, beating out strong competition from Toncoin (TON). Rankings are based on market capitalization, and Shiba Inu and Toncoin are neck and neck right now with market caps above $15 billion.

We have seen a surge in popularity lately from memecoins, with some of the biggest gains coming from Dogwifhat (WIF) and Pepe (PEPE), which have both made headlines this year.

Smaller memecoins have managed to make some waves as well, including political coins that poke fun at Donald Trump or Joe Biden. In a heated election year, their presence is no surprise.

Will Shiba Inu Surge Again Soon?

The recent upswing from Shiba Inu has brought plenty of attention to the coin, and now that it has entered the top ten rankings, it will have even more investors’ eyes on it. This could easily cause the token to surge in the short term and set it up for long-term gains from its new position of prestige.

Meme coins are especially hot right now, and they provide a cathartic outlet for investors who just want to have fun with their buying and selling. Shiba Inu has proven to be remarkably resilient for a coin that is little more than a joke, and we expect it will continue to be so.

With SHIB’s trade volume incredibly high (up 98%), the question is not if Shiba Inu will surge soon, but rather how soon that will be.

 

 

Asian Markets Mostly Lower

Asian stock markets are mostly lower on Wednesday, following the mixed cues from Wall Street overnight, as skepticism over the outlook for interest rates continue ahead of the release of key inflation readings from the U.S. and Europe later in the week. Asian markets closed mostly lower on Tuesday.

The report on US personal income and spending in the month of April, due on Friday, includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the US Fed.

The inflation data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting on June 11-12.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested that more progress on inflation is needed to support a rate cut. In an interview with CNBC, Kashkari said he needs to see “many more months of positive inflation data” before he would consider cutting interest rates.

Australian shares are trading significantly lower on Wednesday, extending the losses in the previous six sessions, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 falling to below the 7,700 level, following the mixed cues from Wall Street overnight, with weakness across most sectors led by mining and financial stocks.

Traders also digested data showing Australia’s monthly inflation rate accelerated to 3.6% in April, the highest since November last year.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index is losing 88.30 points or 1.14 percent to 7,678.40, after hitting a low of 7,676.10 earlier. The broader All Ordinaries Index is down 86.80 points or 1.08 percent to 7,948.10. Australian stocks ended modestly lower on Tuesday.

Among major miners, Rio Tinto is losing more than 1 percent and Fortescue Metals is declining almost 2 percent, while BHP Group is edging up 0.1 percent. Mineral Resources is flat.

Oil stocks are mixed. Woodside Energy is edging up 0.1 percent and Beach energy is gaining almost 2 percent, while Origin Energy and Santos are edging down 0.1 to 0.2 percent each.

In the tech space, Afterpay owner Block and WiseTech Global are losing almost 1 percent each, while Xero is edging down 0.3 percent. Zip is edging up 0.2 percent and Appen is gaining almost 1 percent.

Among the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank and ANZ Banking are all losing more than 1 percent each.

Among gold miners, Newmont is edging up 0.4 percent and Resolute Mining is advancing more than 4 percent, while Evolution Mining, Northern Star Resources and Gold Road Resources are edging down 0.2 to 0.5 percent each.

In other news, shares in respirator company Fisher & Paykel are surging 6 percent on optimism about 2025 net profit after 2024 was hit by three “abnormal items”.

In economic news, The value of total construction work done in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2024, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday – coming in at A$64.032 billion. That missed forecasts for an increase of 0.6 percent following the 0.7 percent gain in the three months prior. On a yearly basis, overall construction work was up 1.8 percent.

In the currency market, the Aussie dollar is trading at $0.665 on Wednesday.

The Japanese stock market is modestly lower on Wednesday after opening in the green, extending the slight losses in the previous session, following the mixed cues from Wall Street overnight. The Nikkei 225 is falling to a tad below the 38,800 level, with weakness in some index heavyweights amid a spike in global bond yields.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Index closed the morning session at 38,789.52, down 65.85 points or 0.17 percent, after hitting a low of 38,675.11 earlier. Japanese stocks ended slightly lower on Tuesday.

Market heavyweight SoftBank Group is gaining more than 3 percent, while Uniqlo operator Fast Retailing is declining almost 1 percent. Among automakers, Honda is edging up 0.2 percent and Toyota is losing almost 1 percent.

In the tech space, Advantest is gaining almost 3 percent and Screen Holdings is adding almost 2 percent, while Tokyo Electron is edging down 0.2 percent.

In the banking sector, Mizuho Financial is edging down 0.1 percent, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial is gaining more than 1 percent and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial is adding almost 1 percent.

Among the major exporters, Sony and Mitsubishi Electric are edging up 0.1 to 0.4 percent each, while Panasonic is declining almost 1 percent and Canon is edging down 0.2 percent.

Among other major losers, Tokyo Electric Power is declining almost 5 percent and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is losing almost 4 percent, while Teijin and LY slipping more 3 percent each.

Conversely, Sompo Holdings is gaining more than 4 percent, while Hoya and Konami Group are adding almost 3 percent each.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar is trading in the lower 157 yen-range on Wednesday.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong and South Korea are down 1.3 and 1.0 percent, respectively. Malaysia, Taiwan and Indonesia are lower by between 0.3 and 0.5 percent each. Meanwhile, China and New Zealand are up 0.5 and 0.1 percent, respectively. Singapore is relatively flat.

On the Wall Street, the Nasdaq and the Dow turned in a mixed performance throughout much of the trading day on Tuesday after moving in opposite directions early in the session. While the Nasdaq briefly joined the Dow in negative territory in afternoon trading, the tech-heavy index rebounded to end the day at a new record closing high.

The major averages ended mixed, The Nasdaq climbed 99.09 points or 0.6 percent to 17,019.88, adding to the strong gain posted last Friday. The S&P 500 also inched up 1.32 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 5,306.04, while the Dow slid 216.73 points or 0.6 percent to 38,852.86, extending the sharp pullback seen last week.

Meanwhile, the major European markets also moved to the downside on the day. While the German DAX Index declined by 0.5 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index and the French CAC 40 Index slumped by 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively.

Crude oil prices rose Tuesday on hopes demand for oil will pick up in the U.S. driving season, and on expectations that OPEC will extend its production cuts into the next quarter. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for July ended higher by $2.11 or 2.7 percent at $79.83 a barrel.

USD Follows Treasury Yields Higher Again Today

Yesterday the USD made a bullish reversal in the US session as Treasury yields started surging higher after the Treasury auction. The buck made some decent gains across the board and today the situation is escalating again, with EUR/USD returning back to 1.08 lows as I write. Continue reading “USD Follows Treasury Yields Higher Again Today”

European Economic News Preview: German Inflation, Consumer Confidence Data Due

Flash inflation and consumer confidence from Germany and monetary aggregates from the euro area are the top economic news due on Wednesday.

At 2.00 am ET, the market research group Gfk is scheduled to issue Germany’s consumer confidence survey results. The confidence index is forecast to improve to -22.5 in June from -24.2 in May.

At 2.45 am ET, France’s statistical office INSEE releases consumer sentiment survey data. Economists expect the consumer sentiment index to climb to 91 in May from 90 in the previous month.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain’s INE is scheduled to release retail sales for April. Sales had increased 0.6 percent annually in March.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is set to release euro area monetary aggregates for April. Economists expect M3 money supply to grow 1.3 percent on year, faster than the 0.9 percent rise in March.

In the meantime, Italy’s business and consumer sentiment survey results are due. Also, flash inflation data is due from Poland.

At 8.00 am ET, Germany’s statistical office is slated to release flash consumer and harmonized prices for May. Consumer price inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.4 percent from 2.2 percent in April. EU harmonized inflation is seen at 2.7 percent, up from 2.4 percent in the previous month.

Don’t get caught off guard. Track key Economic Events with RTTNews Economic Trading Calendar.