Inflation Forces in Play

The number of analysts who believe that the forces driving inflation downward are firmly in place is growing. While it’s true that one data point can be questionable, the mechanisms reducing inflation appear to be active. There are no apparent new drivers of inflation at present, and crude oil prices have fallen after peaking at $80. Consequently, upcoming inflation figures, such as this week’s PCE inflation, may surprise on the downside.

Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy

Economists predict a swift decline in inflation, largely due to a slump in durable goods. They argue that the Federal Reserve should start reducing interest rates immediately. The belief is that the conditions causing inflation to plummet will persist, reinforcing the need for a shift in monetary policy to accommodate the changing economic landscape.

 

 

 

 

Tesla Leads the Way for US Stock Indices

Tesla stock and US stock markets showed resilience today, as Joe Biden pulled back from the presidential race, with the Nasdaq making the most of it. Tech stocks surged higher today which benefited the Nasdaq index, with the Tesla stock leading the way higher as it surged by more than 5% higher.

Tesla stocks resume the bullish trend

Continue reading “Tesla Leads the Way for US Stock Indices”

 

 

 

 

 

Bundesbank Monthly Report Highlights

Caution on Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Risks

  • The Bundesbank emphasizes that potential interest rate cuts should be “carefully considered” due to ongoing inflation risks.
  • Factors that are currently supporting the economy are also complicating efforts to reach the inflation target.

Labour Market and Wage Growth

  • The labour market remains robust with high capacity utilization.
  • Wage growth is strong, and prices are particularly rising in the services sector.
  • Therefore, any further interest rate cuts should be approached with caution based on the current data.

Economic Growth and Industrial Sector

  • The Bundesbank notes that the German economy likely grew slower than expected in Q2.
  • This slower growth is not surprising given the recessionary state of the industrial sector.

 

 

 

 

 

Ryanair Stock Dips On Weak Q1 Profit, Q2 Fares Warning

Shares of Ryanair Holdings plc were losing more than 14 percent in the pre-market activity on the Nasdaq after the European airline reported Monday sharply lower first-quarter profit, hit by higher operating costs and weaker than expected air fares. Traffic grew from last year despite multiple Boeing delivery delays, but load factor declined.

Looking ahead, the company trimmed forecast for second-quarter fares, and said it sees higher traffic for fiscal 2025.

Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary, said, “FY25 traffic is expected to grow 8 percent (198m to 200m passengers), subject to no worsening Boeing delivery delays. … While Q2 demand is strong, pricing remains softer than we expected, and we now expect Q2 fares to be materially lower than last summer (previously expected to be flat to modestly up). The final H1 outcome is, however, totally dependent on close-in bookings and yields in Aug. and Sept.

The CEO further said the final fiscal 2025 outcome remains subject to avoiding adverse developments during the year, especially given continuing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, repeated ATC shortstaffing and capacity restrictions, or further Boeing delivery delays.

In its first quarter, profit after tax fell 46 percent to 360 million euros from last year’s 663 million euros.

Operating costs grew 11 percent from the prior year to 3.26 billion euros as fuel hedge savings offset higher staff and other costs which was in part due to Boeing delivery delays.

Revenue edged down 1 percent to 3.63 billion euros from last year’s 3.65 billion euros. Scheduled revenue in the quarter fell 6 percent from the prior year to 2.33 billion euros.

Traffic grew 10 percent to 55.5 million customers from prior year’s 50.4 million customers, despite multiple Boeing delivery delays. Meanwhile, average fares were down 15 percent to 41.93 euros, in part, to the absence of the first half of Easter which fell into March, and more price stimulation than had previously expected.

Load Factor dropped 1 percentage point to 94 percent from 95 percent a year ago.

In the pre-market activity on the Nasdaq, Ryanair shares were trading at $98.07, down 14.21 percent.

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U.S. Stocks May See Early Strength As Biden Drops Out Of Presidential Race

Stocks are likely to move to the upside in early trading on Monday, with the major index futures pointing to a higher open for the markets following the mixed performance seen last week. The Nasdaq 100 futures are surging by 1.1 percent.

The upward momentum on Wall Street comes after President Joe Biden announced his decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris.

Biden has been under pressure to step aside after his disastrous debate performance raised questions about his fitness to serve another term as president.

While Republican nominee Donald Trump is seen as a more pro-business candidate, his return to the White House could also lead to increased trade tensions with China.

“The market appears to have welcomed Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, given how futures prices imply a decent opening for Wall Street,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

“However, there is still a lot of uncertainty until the new Democratic candidate is confirmed,” he added. “That means we could see heightened volatility over the next few weeks, with assets quickly changing direction depending on the latest comments from Washington.”

Later in the week, focus is likely to shift to a report on personal income and spending in June, which includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve.

The data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates, with the Fed currently widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter point in September.

Stocks moved mostly lower during trading on Friday, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 extending the steep drop seen over the two previous sessions. The narrower Dow also moved to the downside, pulling back further off the record closing high set on Wednesday.

The major averages all finished the day firmly in negative territory. The Dow slumped 377.49 points or 0.9 percent to 40,287.53, the Nasdaq slid 144.28 points or 0.8 percent to 17,726.94 and the S&P 500 fell 39.59 points or 0.7 percent to 5,505.00.

For the week, the major averages turned in a mixed performance. The tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged by 3.7 percent and the S&P 500 tumbled by 2.0 percent, but the Dow climbed by 0.7 percent.

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly lower during trading on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index slumped by 1.2 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index slid by 0.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets have moved to the upside on the day. While the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index has advanced by 0.8 percent, the French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX Index are up by 1.3 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

In commodities trading, crude oil futures are falling $0.51 to $79.62 a barrel after plunging $2.69 to $80.13 a barrel last Friday. Meanwhile, after plummeting $57.30 to $2,399.10 an ounce in the previous session, gold futures are inching up $0.70 to $2,399.80 an ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 157.03 yen versus the 157.48 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the euro, the dollar is trading at $1.0881 compared to last Friday’s $1.0882.

CrowdStrike Says Significant Number Of Impacted Windows Devices Back In Operation; Stock Down

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., the cybersecurity firm behind the ‘largest IT outage in history’ is continuing with its downward stock movement, even after the firm informed that a significant number of the impacted Microsoft Windows devices are back online and operational. The faulty software update had knocked out around 8.5 million computers globally and resulted in chaos in many major sectors including airline operation.

In pre-market activity on the Nasdaq, CrowdStrike shares were losing around 5.2 percent to trade at $289.08. The issues, which started on late Thursday, had pushed down the company’s stock price on Friday by 11.1 percent to close at $304.96.

CrowdStrike released a software update on August 18 that began impacting IT systems globally. CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz, in an earlier post on X platform, had stated that the outages were caused by a defect found in a single content update of its software on Microsoft Windows operating systems.

The faulty software update had brought down computers and technical systems across the world unexpectedly, including airlines, banks, businesses, governments, schools, as well as health and emergency services, among others.

In many countries across the world, tens of thousands of customers and air and rail passengers were stranded due to their respective service providers’ inability to operate due to the glitch.

Thousands of flights were cancelled worldwide so far since the outages. Many U.S. airlines, including American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Frontier Airlines, among others, experienced issues.

The flights are still getting cancelled on the fourth day Monday even after the companies said they were solving the issues. According to the tracking website FlightAware, total cancellations on Monday so far are 1,151 flights, while total delays are 15,147. Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States are 785, while the delays are 1063.

Certain other companies also continue to experience delay in operations and other technical problems.

As per CrowdStrike’s latest update, it tested a new technique to accelerate impacted system remediation, and continues to focus on restoring all systems as soon as possible.

“We’re in the process of operationalizing an opt-in to this technique. We’re making progress by the minute,” the company said.

Responding to the outage, CrowdStrike on Friday had said that the the issue had been identified, isolated and a fix has been deployed. The company added then that it was not a security incident or cyberattack, and that Mac and Linux hosts were not impacted.

According to earlier blog post from Microsoft, the outage affected an estimated 8.5 million Windows devices, less than one percent of all Windows machines. While the percentage was small, the broad economic and societal impacts reflect the use of CrowdStrike by enterprises that run many critical services, the company then noted.

Although this was not a Microsoft incident, the company said it took various steps to provide users with technical guidance and support citing it’s impact in the ecosystem.

Microsoft further said, “This incident demonstrates the interconnected nature of our broad ecosystem — global cloud providers, software platforms, security vendors and other software vendors, and customers. It’s also a reminder of how important it is for all of us across the tech ecosystem to prioritize operating with safe deployment and disaster recovery using the mechanisms that exist. As we’ve seen over the last two days, we learn, recover and move forward most effectively when we collaborate and work together.”

Verizon Q2 Profit Weak, Revenues Miss View, Backs Outlook; Stock Down

Shares of Verizon Communications were losing nearly 6 percent in the early morning trading on the NYSE on Monday after the telecom major maintained its fiscal 2024 outlook after reporting weak profit in its second quarter, in line with Street estimates.

Revenues edged up on strong wireless service revenue and broadband subscriber growth, but missed market estimates.

Verizon Chairman and CEO Hans Vestberg said, “The sequential and year over year improvements in the second quarter were a reflection of operational excellence and the moves we made to bring choice, value and control to our customers’ lives. …We continue to build and expand on our strengths and successes with new products and services, and we are confident that this upward momentum will position us for future growth.”

For 2024, Verizon continues to expect adjusted earnings per share of $4.50 to $4.70. Analysts on average expect the company to report earnings of $4.58 per share, according to figures compiled by Thomson Reuters. Analysts’ estimates typically exclude special items.

The company continues to project adjusted EBITDA growth of 1.0 percent to 3.0 percent, and total wireless service revenue growth of 2.0 percent to 3.5 percent.

In its second quarter, earnings totaled $4.702 billion or $1.09 per share, compared to $4.766 billion or $1.10 per share in last year’s second quarter.

The second-quarter 2024 financial results reflected a pre-tax loss from special items of $355 million.

Adjusted earnings were $1.15 per share for the period, compared to $1.21 per share a year ago. Analysts had expected the company to earn $1.15 per share.

consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $12.3 billion went up from $12.0 billion in 2023.

The company’s revenue for the quarter rose 0.6 percent to $32.796 billion from $32.596 billion last year. The Street was looking for revenues of $33.06 billion.

Total wireless service revenue of $19.8 billion grew 3.5 percent year over year. Retail postpaid phone net additions were 148,000, and retail postpaid net additions were 340,000.

Total Verizon Consumer revenue in second-quarter 2024 was $24.9 billion, an increase of 1.5 percent.

The company had 11.5 million total broadband subscribers as of the end of second-quarter 2024, representing a 17.2 percent increase year over year.

On the NYSE, Verizon shares were losing around 6 percent to trade at $39.16.

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Dollar Rallies As U.S. Presidential Race Heats Up

The U.S. Dollar rallied against major currencies during the week ended July 19 as dramatic developments unfolded in the U.S. political scene. The U.S. Dollar strengthened against the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Canadian Dollar and the Swedish Krona in a week that saw an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. The greenback however slipped against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

The Dollar Index of DXY, which measures the Dollar’s strength against a basket of 6 currencies rebounded 0.26 percent during the week ended July 19. The index had slipped 0.75 percent during the week ended July 12 and 0.94 percent during the week ended July 5.

The Dollar got a boost following Sunday’s incident at Pennsylvania where former U.S. President Donald Trump was shot at. Safe haven demand as well as market perception that the event raised the odds of a Trump win in the presidential race bolstered the greenback.

Close on the heels of the softer-than-expected CPI data released a week earlier, Monday’s dovish hints from Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced hopes of a Fed rate cut in September.

Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed month-on-month Retail sales in the U.S. remaining flat as expected in June versus an upwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in May.

Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the U.S. increasing to 243 thousand in the week ended July 13 from 223 thousand in the previous week, surpassing market expectations of 230 thousand.

Amidst these developments, the DXY touched a weekly high of 104.51 on Tuesday and dropped to a weekly low of 103.65 on Wednesday, before recovering and eventually closing at 104.36 on Friday.

The euro slipped against the U.S. Dollar during the week ended July 19 despite ECB’s open forward guidance that followed the status quo on interest rates on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.0877 on July 19, from 1.0906 a week earlier, recording a decrease of 0.27 percent. The pair ranged between the low of 1.0871 recorded on Tuesday and the high of 1.0948 touched on Wednesday.

The U.S. Dollar surged against the British pound also during the week ended July 19. The GBP/USD pair which had closed at 1.2992 on July 12, dropped to 1.2919 by July 19. The sterling’s weakness came despite a higher-than-expected inflation reading that lifted the pound to a one-year high of $1.3046 on Wednesday. Data released on Thursday showed a steady unemployment rate in line with expectations whereas a larger-than-expected decline in retail sales on Friday dragged the pair to the week’s low of 1.2900.

The Australian Dollar too plunged 1.5 percent against the U.S. Dollar during the week ended July 19, ending its five-week winning streak amidst weak economic data from China. The AUD/USD pair which had closed at 0.6783 on July 12 rose to 0.6791 on Monday before dropping to 0.6680 on Friday. The pair edged up and finally closed at 0.6682 on Friday.

The past week however saw the Japanese yen extend gains against the U.S. Dollar. The USD/JPY pair which was at 157.89 on July 12 slipped to 157.49 in a week’s time. The pair had touched a high of 158.87 on Tuesday and a low of 155.37 on Thursday. The yen’s strength came amidst inflation in Japan remaining steady at 2.8 percent. The prospect of Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook tilting to the hawkish side and diverging from the Fed’s looming monetary policy easing benefitted the yen.

On the horizon are key economic data releases ranging from Consumer Confidence readings from Euro Area as well as PMI updates from Australia, Japan, Euro Area, U.K. and U.S. etc. Given the linkage to Fed’s rate cut dynamics, the GDP update from the U.S. on Thursday and the PCE-based inflation readings on Friday are expected to sway currency market movements significantly.

Nevertheless, political dimensions again assumed preeminence with Joe Biden ending his reelection bid. Amidst the changed electoral landscape as well as the lingering expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the Dollar index has edged down to 104.31.

The EUR/USD pair has increased to 1.0882. The GBP/USD pair has however slipped to 1.2916. The AUD/USD pair has slipped to 0.6637. The USD/JPY pair has meanwhile declined all the way to 156.84.

Cryptos Mixed As Biden Ends Bid For Reelection

Cryptocurrencies are trading mixed in the backdrop of the changed electoral landscape following President Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race. Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB are trading in the red whereas Solana, XRP and Dogecoin have recorded strong gains. Data showing continuing massive inflows to digital asset investment products supported sentiment for cryptocurrencies.

Overall crypto market capitalization has slipped to $2.43 trillion versus $2.45 trillion, a day earlier.

Bitcoin touched a high of $68,480 earlier in the trade. At its current trading price of $66,902, which is 9 percent below the all-time high, Bitcoin has slipped 0.5 percent overnight. Given the weekly gains of 6.2 percent, year-to-date gains exceed 58 percent.

Ethereum which is trading at $3,456.73, around 29 percent below its all-time high has shed 1.6 percent overnight. Addition of more than 2 percent over the course of the past week has lifted gains in 2024 to more than 51 percent. The top-ranked altcoin ranged between $3,560 and $3,415 in the past 24 hours.

With a market capitalization of $1.32 trillion, Bitcoin dominates 54.2 percent of the overall crypto market. Ethereum which enjoys a market cap of $416 billion follows with a market share of 17.1 percent. Market capitalization of stablecoins aggregates to $166 billion, implying an overall market share of 6.8 percent.

4th ranked BNB (BNB) has slipped more than 1 percent overnight. 5th ranked Solana (SOL) added 2.7 percent whereas 6th ranked XRP (XRP) surged 4.2 percent in the past 24 hours. 8th ranked Dogecoin (DOGE) also gained more than 3 percent in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, huge inflows to digital asset investment products continued in the past week also amidst positive sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. The CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly report showed inflows of $1.4 billion during the week ended July 20 matching the inflows a week earlier. Year-to-date flows increased to $19.2 billion whereas cumulative AUM increased to $97.7 billion.

Bitcoin-based products that recorded weekly inflows of $1.3 billion constituted bulk of the inflows. Ethereum-based products recorded inflows of $45 million as markets gear up for the launch of Ethereum Spot ETF products. Multi-asset products received inflows of $16.7 million. Solana-based products also recorded inflows of $9.6 million.

More than 78 percent of the cumulative AUM of $97.7 billion is attributed to Bitcoin products that account for an AUM of $77 billion. Bitcoin’s dominance of crypto market is much lower, at around 54 percent. AUM of Ethereum products stood at $13.7 billion. Multi-asset portfolios command assets under management of $4.6 billion. An AUM of $1.41 billion is attributed to Solana-based products and $586 million to Binance-based products.

The provider-wise analysis of flows inter alia shows inflows of $707 million to iShares ETF followed by $244 million to Fidelity ETF. Ark 21 Shares recorded inflows of $99 million. Bitwise recorded inflows of more than $70 million followed by 21Shares that saw inflows of $49 million. Outflows of $52 million were recorded from Grayscale Investments.

Though year-to-date outflows exceed $18.6 billion, Grayscale Investments still accounts for an AUM of $28.8 billion, which is more than 29 percent of the cumulative AUM of $97.7 billion. iShares commands an AUM of $22 billion, followed by Fidelity that has mobilized assets under management to the tune of $12 billion.
The country-wise analysis shows weekly inflows of $1.3 billion to United States. Switzerland recorded inflows of more than $66 million. Canada also recorded inflows of close to $8 million.

Of the cumulative AUM of $97.7 billion, $77.1 billion or 78 percent is in United States. Switzerland follows with AUM of more than $5 billion whereas Canada accounts for an AUM of more than $4.8 billion. Germany accounts for an AUM of $4.1 billion followed by Sweden with an AUM of $3.2 billion.

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U.S. Stocks Move Mostly Higher As Nvidia Leads Tech Rebound

With technology stocks rebounding following the sell-off seen last week, stocks have moved mostly higher during trading on Monday. The major averages have all moved to the upside, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the charge.

Currently, the major averages are just off their highs of the session. The Nasdaq is up 235.65 points or 1.3 percent at 17,962.59, the S&P 500 is up 49.40 points or 0.9 percent at 5,554.40 and the Dow is up 134.80 points or 0.3 percent at 40,422.33.

The strength on Wall Street comes as tech stocks are regaining ground following the steep drop seen last week, which saw the Nasdaq plunge by 3.7 percent.

AI darling and tech sector leader Nvidia (NVDA) has helped lead the way back to the upside, surging by 3.8 percent after plummeting by 8.8 percent last week.

The advance by Nvidia has contributed to considerable strength among semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping by 2.5 percent after ending last Friday’s trading at its lowest closing level in well over a month.

Significant strength is also visible among software stocks, as reflected by the 1.3 percent gain being posted by the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index.

Computer hardware stocks are also seeing notable strength on the day, while telecom and oil stocks have moved to the downside.

Stocks are also moving higher after President Joe Biden announced his decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris.

Biden has been under pressure to step aside after his disastrous debate performance raised questions about his fitness to serve another term as president.

While Republican nominee Donald Trump is seen as a more pro-business candidate, his return to the White House could also lead to increased trade tensions with China.

“The market appears to have welcomed Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

“However, there is still a lot of uncertainty until the new Democratic candidate is confirmed,” he added. “That means we could see heightened volatility over the next few weeks, with assets quickly changing direction depending on the latest comments from Washington.”

Later in the week, focus is likely to shift to a report on personal income and spending in June, which includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve.

The data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates, with the Fed currently widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter point in September.

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly lower during trading on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index slumped by 1.2 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index slid by 0.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets have moved to the upside on the day. While the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index is up by 0.6 percent, the French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX Index are up by 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

In the bond market, treasuries are regaining ground following the pullback seen over the two previous sessions. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, is down by 2.2 basis points at 4.216 percent.