SpaceX Stock Forecast: SPCX Tests $117.80 as Starlink Growth Offsets AI Spending

SpaceX shares bounced toward $117 on Tuesday after hitting fresh post-IPO lows. The move comes as investors re-evaluate the company’s highly profitable Starlink business versus its large-scale spending on artificial intelligence and Starship. SPCX has fallen nearly 18% from its $135 IPO price, after briefly trading above $200 following its June debut. SpaceX offered 555.6 million shares in its initial public offering, raising almost $75 billion. The inclusion of the underwriters’ overallotment option takes the potential size of the deal to approximately $85.7 billion.

Starlink Is Still Space X’s Largest Income Generator

SpaceX brought in $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025, an increase of 33% over the prior year. Yet, net losses came to around $4.94 billion as expenditures on AI infrastructure and Starship dwarfed Starlink’s profits.

Connectivity generated $11.39 billion, or 61%, of total revenue. It also turned a profit of $4.42 billion in operating income.

The Connectivity business’s revenue grew almost 50% as the number of subscribers increased, but average revenue per user dipped as SpaceX moved into lower-cost countries.

Starlink, which operates globally, had 10.3 million subscribers as of the end of March. It also caters to aviation, maritime, enterprise and government clients. Recurring Starlink subscription revenue is essential for funding SpaceX’s other ventures, many of which are far more costly.

AI Losses Are The Primary Valuation Headwind

SpaceX’s AI division had around $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025, while operating losses were close to $6.4 billion. The segment saw capital expenditure reach $7.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone.

This difference accounts for a good portion of why Starlink is profitable yet SpaceX posted a consolidated loss. The big question now is whether future AI revenue justifies the cost of building out computing infrastructure. The post-IPO drop reflects the market assigning a lower valuation to these long-term initiatives than it did in the early days of trading.

Starship Flight 13 Paves Way For Satellite Deployments

SpaceX performed the 13th integrated flight test for Starship on July 24. This flight successfully deployed 20 of the company’s next-generation Starlink V3 satellites on a sub-orbital trajectory.

The Reuters agency reported that the satellites briefly relayed signals between themselves and the existing network before returning to Earth as intended. The upper stage relit its engines to guide itself into a controlled ocean touchdown, while the Super Heavy booster met a harsher fate when several engines failed to reignite.

The test flight generated valuable data on heat shield integrity and satellite deployment. Starship’s significance lies in its greater capacity, which could reduce the cost of building out Starlink’s global coverage as well as enable NASA lunar flights.

SPCX Technical Forecast: $117.80 Resistance Stands In The Way Of Upside

SPCX rose from $109.01 and broke above a short-term descending channel. A bullish engulfing candlestick, coupled with higher closes, demonstrates strengthening demand, though the stock is now probing the 50 EMA at $117.79.

The overarching picture is still negative because price continues to remain beneath the 50 EMA, a falling long-term trendline and the 200 EMA near $142. The RSI has risen past 54, indicating improving momentum without being in overbought conditions.

A solid break above $117.80 would confirm further upside potential, revealing $121.54 and eventually $129.39. A failure to breach the 50 EMA could send prices lower to $114.51. A breakdown of this level puts $109.01 and $101.81 back in play.

Resistance: $117.80, $121.54, $129.39

Support: $114.51, $109.01, $101.81

Space X Trading Outlook Depends On Climbing Above 50 EMA

Space X’s fundamental narrative depends on the expansion of Starlink, with Falcon and government agreements covering the expense of Starship and AI. The key risk remains that spending may continue to outpace group revenue.

Technically, the short-term outlook has brightened, yet a more robust rebound will require a close above $117.80. Otherwise, the rally will likely come under pressure.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Ali Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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